Nigeria, April 26 -- If economic health, social vitality, and the raw pulse of public opinion were the only indicators relied upon to prognosticate the chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's reelection in 2027, I would say with cocksure certitude that he is condemned to be a one-term president.

Not even the most hopelessly unthinking defenders of the Tinubu presidency can deny that his reign so far has been defined by unrelieved economic hardship, staggering inflation, a collapsing naira, and a deepening sense of despair among Nigerians. In other words, the objective conditions for his political repudiation are overripe.

Nonetheless, elections, especially in Nigeria, are not won on the basis of public frustration alone. They are won -...