Nigeria, Jan. 27 -- Why Nigeria must stop mistaking projections for outcomes, and start governing poverty as a system

Nigeria's poverty debate has drifted into a dangerous simplification. A single figure appears, detached from its assumptions, is repeated until it hardens into fact, and then deployed as proof of inevitability or failure. It is emotionally compelling. It is also analytically shallow.

When the media headlines projections made by consulting firms, such as the recent PwC publication, Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, which states that 141 million Nigerians will be poor, the figure is often treated as a definitive account of lived reality, rather than what it actually is: a projection based on assumptions about economic conditi...