Nigeria, Nov. 29 -- The Nigerian government scripted this week as a victory lap. The safe return of the 24 schoolgirls abducted from Kebbi State and the 38 worshippers seized from a church in Kwara State offered President Bola Tinubu a rare opportunity to showcase the efficacy of his "Renewed Hope" security strategy.

Images of the rescued students - weary, dusty, but alive - were broadcast as definitive proof that the military's "non-kinetic" pressure and intelligence dragnet are finally tightening the noose on the terror groups ravaging northern Nigeria.

But beneath the veneer of official celebration lies a darker reality. The events of this week are not isolated incidents; they are the violent validation of a grim warning issued by th...