Kathmandu, Dec. 27 -- As a physician, I am at the receiving end of a lot of questions from friends and relatives about the pandemic. While some want to know about their symptoms, most questions are aboutwhether the number of cases in Nepal is actually going down.

It is hard to tell. There a lack of tracing, testing is inadequate, and record keeping is unreliable. The media carries a daily tally that is based on government figures, and they show confirmed cases have now dipped to below 1,000 per day, almost half of them in Kathmandu Valley.

The Ministry of Health statistics also show that there are about 250 patients in critical care, and some 50 of them require ventilator support. If these figures are to be believed, the death rate from...