New Delhi, Nov. 3 -- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that northwest India is unlikely to face an unusually severe winter this month, with conditions expected to remain largely consistent with previous years. The clarification comes after reports predicted an exceptionally cold November due to the likely development of La Niña conditions.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated, "Based on our analysis of the La Niña model, we do not anticipate a harsher winter. We expect a normal winter, similar to what we have seen in recent years." He added that current La Niña conditions are weak and are expected to stay that way through the coming months.
According to IMD officials, daytime temperatures are projected to remain normal to slightly below normal, while minimum temperatures will stay above normal in most parts of the country. However, some areas in northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, and Rajasthan, may experience cooler nights.
The IMD noted that La Niña conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while the Indian Ocean is witnessing a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). "The latest global model forecasts indicate that La Niña conditions are likely to persist from November to December 2025, while negative IOD conditions are expected to weaken in the coming months," the department said.
Officials further explained that, apart from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects over the Pacific, the Indian Ocean's sea surface temperatures also play a crucial role in shaping India's climate. "Currently, negative IOD conditions are being observed, but these are likely to weaken soon," they said. The weakening IOD implies warmer sea surface temperatures, which typically support a healthy monsoon pattern.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said, "The warming over the Pacific means a good monsoon, except for the retreating phase in the northeastern region." On the likelihood of colder weather, he noted, "When western disturbances approach, they alter the flow of dry and cold winds from the snow-clad North-Western Himalayas. Hence, minimum temperatures are unlikely to fall below normal."
Palawat also recalled that despite a rare "triple-dip" La Niña from 2021 to 2023-the third such event since 1950-India did not experience a severe winter. "There is no direct correlation," he said, citing data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that aligns with IMD's outlook.
October 2025 was one of the wettest in recent years, with 112.2 mm of rainfall-the second highest since 2001-and 236 instances of very heavy rainfall, along with 45 extremely heavy rain events, mainly in Bihar, North Bengal, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.