Kuala Lampur, Sept. 10 -- Malaysia's plan to raise cigarette excise taxes is rooted in good intent: discourage smoking, improve health, and secure revenue. But unless tax hikes are paired with stronger enforcement and smarter regulation of alternatives, we risk fuelling another surge in illicit trade and losing more revenue than we gain.

Malaysia loses about RM5 billion annually to illicit cigarette trade. Illicit products account for over half of all cigarette consumption, with estimates at 54-60 per cent.

When legal prices rise sharply without higher costs on illicit substitutes, smokers - especially low- and middle-income groups - gravitate to untaxed options. Many B40 and even M40 smokers switch to illicit packs or unregulated sourc...