Sri Lanka, May 14 -- The Joint Statement on US-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva published on 12 May appears to be a significant de-escalation of the trade war between the two countries, Fitch Ratings says. But in the absence of a lasting deal, uncertainty over where tariff rates will settle and the impact of those already implemented will remain key factors in our macroeconomic forecasts.

The statement suspends for 90 days the 34% reciprocal rate that the US imposed on Chinese imports on 2 April and cancels the subsequent escalation in the reciprocal rate to 125% that it announced on 8-9 April. The US and Chinese governments will reduce overall headline bilateral tariffs (unadjusted for sector-specific tariffs and carve-outs) by ...