New Delhi, Feb. 19 -- Consumer inflation in India is projected to rise to 4.3 per cent in fiscal 2027 (April 2026-March 2027), up from an estimated 2.5 per cent in fiscal 2026, according to a report by Crisil.

The increase is expected as food inflation normalises from current low levels due to a low base effect. While food prices are likely to remain broadly stable on the assumption of a normal monsoon in 2026, the base effect will push food inflation higher than in fiscal 2026.

Impact of Revised CPI Series

The report notes that the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, with 2024 as the base year, will moderate the rise in inflation. The weight of food in the CPI basket has declined to 36.75 per cent from 45.86 per cent earlier, l...