New Delhi, Dec. 30 -- Exports slowdown could intensify in the second half (H2) of the current fiscal and weigh on economic growth unless a trade deal with the US is finalized, according to rating firm ICRA.

ICRA has pegged India's GDP growth at 7.4% in FY2026 up from 6.5% in FY2025 on the back of better than expected numbers in the first half of the fiscal. It however sees the growth moderating in the second half of the fiscal due to an unfavourable base.

ICRA forecasts GDP growth to print below 7% in H2 FY2026 from 8% in H1 FY2026.

The rating agency said that unless the Government of India's capex allocation is enhanced and the tariff-related uncertainties ebb the GDP growth appears set to ease below 7% in the second half.

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