PATNA, Nov. 8 -- With the first phase of election over for 121 seats and the two main alliances interpreting the unprecedented surge in polling to their advantage, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor termed it an impact of youth and migrants, who would be the biggest X-factor this time, to add to the continued growing participation of women. "So many analysts moved around the state but could anyone see this kind of historic voting taking place? The fact is that it has happened due to the youth's aspirations and migrants' return and November 14 will surprise all. I see voting with a purpose this time and migrants and youth are the X-factor," he told media persons, exuding the same confidence that he demonstrated a fortnight ago. Kishor said he had been consistently saying for months that over 60% Bihar people were for change, as most of them were affected by migration and joblessness, and JSP had provided an alternative to them to break the status quo politics for the first time in three and half decades, which had encouraged them to come out and vote. "How the migrant labourers have influenced the voting by their friends, relatives and family members is what will determine the historic outcome in November 14. This kind of aggressive voting is usually for change and the migrant labourers, who returned during Chhath and stayed back, were always for change. That has removed the indifference towards voting as they see a glimmer of hope," he added. Though poll pundits have been projecting 2025 Bihar Assembly election as a direct fight between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led Opposition alliance from the outset, with focus on Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, Kishor's optimism is largely based on the migrants' behaviour and its impact on their family members. Due to the state's political arithmetic, the question usually doing the rounds is whether Nitish will take oath for the 10th time, the issue that echoed during 2020 also, but Kishor, also a poll strategist, has been predicting fewer seats than last time for the JD(U) all through his campaigning. Experts say the Bihar poll scenario also has another X-factor, which is of dissension - both hidden and apparent - following the distribution of tickets, which has led to several rebel candidates in the fray, and players like the JSP and the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, have the potential to alter the equations in their pockets of strength due to this. What is striking is that despite psephologists and pollsters not giving much space to the JSP, Kishor has not given up and continued with his vigorous campaigning for his relatively cleaner candidates comprising professionals and locals to exhort voters to vote for their basic issues. While the three main key players - the BJP, RJD and the JD(U) - jostle as usual, Kishor has been able to build a new narrative revolving around migration and joblessness and all the parties, including the BJP, have started speaking on it. But it remains to be seen how deep JSP's narrative is able to translate into votes in an election that has witnessed enormous pulls and pressures. Former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies DM Diwakar said while Nitish Kumar remained the undisputed balancing factor, the election could throw some surprises due to presence of rebels and players like AIMIM and JSP, which could reduce the margin of error for established parties to throw new possibilities. "The exit polls may have their own calculation, but ground reality, according to me, is not so clear. The pet vote banks of big parties may follow the pre-ordained lines, but the same cannot be said about youth and migrants. The last minute actions and mergers shows that despite putting up a brave front, big players are not convinced. I also see an interesting post-poll scenario unfolding due to the X-factor," he added....