NDA re-established authority and indispensability of Nitish
PATNA, Dec. 31 -- The NDA leaders in January 2025, during first of a series of joint workers' conferences at Bagaha and Bettiah in Bihar's West Champaran district in the run-up to the assembly election, had declared that they aimed to sweep the 2025 Assembly elections by winning 225 out of 243 constituencies in the state.
Declaring that their strength lies in their unity and in working for the development of Bihar, the Alliance nearly achieved the goal by once again surpassing the mark of 200-seat in the 2025 Bihar elections. This is the second time the ruling alliance has crossed 200 mark after 2010 Assembly elections, when the NDA had secured 206 seats.
Showing a rare unity despite hiccups during the seat-sharing negotiations, the year 2025 proved to be remarkable for the alliance of five parties. The NDA experienced a highly volatile "roller coaster" ride in Bihar politics, but the alliance bounced back from every stumble, culminating in a landslide victory in the assembly elections. One of the most striking aspects of this victory was that the alliance defied the incumbency of 20-year of chief minister Nitish Kumar-led rule.
In this election, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Bihar with 89 seats. It was closely followed by ally JD(U) at 85, while Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) contributed 19. The other two allies -- HAM-S and RLM -- won four each. In the previous Assembly elections, the RJD with 74 seats was the single largest party but this time, its tally plummeted sharply, to 25 seats.
In 2020 assembly elections, the BJP had won 74 seats with 19.46 percent vote share. Whereas the JD(U) had won 43 seats in the last election and its vote percentage was 15.39 per cent.
The unprecedented electoral success of the NDA was the result of exemplary unity shown by its constituents during the election campaign -- the presence of the state presidents of all the NDA's constituent parties at more than two dozen such conferences organised in different parts of the state.
The NDA's thumping win in Bihar was the result of a well curated strategy for success. Firstly, the near-perfect chemistry in alliance partners, while it was visibly absent in the Mahagatbandhan (MGB). All the partners in the NDA contributed to its success. There was inter-dependence among the partners in terms of seat allocation within the NDA. The second major factor was that the key leaders in the NDA directed both the campaign of the alliance and that of individual partners. This was a recipe for victory. The fact that the NDA is the ruling alliance at the Centre also helped.
The NDA victory also affirmed the centrality of CM Nitish Kumar in Bihar politics as his party JD(U) nearly doubled its tally from the 2020 mark even though its partner BJP raced ahead as the largest individual party of the state.
Governance decisions in the run-up to the polls became a key electoral battleground. Well before the poll schedule was announced, the state government rolled out or expanded a range of welfare measures, many mirroring promises articulated by the opposition.
Weeks ahead of the announcement of the election schedule, the Bihar government launched the "Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana", with the PM participating virtually. Under the scheme, Rs.10,000 was disbursed to over 1.5 crore women, though the timing of some payments, well after the poll schedule announcement, drew criticism.
The Election Commission data showed that the NDA's landslide was aided by a nearly 10-per cent increase in its own vote share, attributed largely to the scale and reach of welfare measures.
The NDA's strategy revolved around unified campaigning under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, emphasising development, women's empowerment, and good governance. Modi addressed multiple rallies, invoking the "double-engine" growth model.
CM Nitish Kumar focused on welfare schemes, particularly those benefiting women and youth, while Union home minister Amit Shah highlighted infiltration concerns and infrastructure progress. The alliance's disciplined seat-sharing and effective vote transfer among partners proved crucial.
Political observers point to four key components that shaped the campaign.
The election preparation began months before polling. Senior leaders from the BJP and JD(U) held multiple strategy sessions aimed at synchronising their ground operations. The substantial portion of the effort lay in strengthening booth committees and improving on-ground communication. In several constituencies, constituencies with reinforced booth-level structures saw an uptick in organisational turnout and voter engagement.
Another important aspect that was managed effectively was the internal dissent, which had often posed challenges for alliances in the past. This election cycle saw a concerted effort to prevent vote-splitting within the NDA. In a three-day series of meetings in Patna, Shah met nearly a hundred disgruntled leaders and potential rebels. Many were persuaded to withdraw or re-align with the alliance, reducing the likelihood of multi-cornered contests. Results suggest that several close seats were ultimately decided by narrow margins, suggesting that consolidating the alliance's internal ranks played a meaningful role in the final tally.
The NDA's strategy also revolved around targeted social outreach. The campaign efforts focused on Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) for over a month, with parallel programmes aimed at Mahadalit, Paswan, and Pasi communities. Coordination with JD(U) leaders helped retain the Koeri-Kurmi base, long considered a core support group.
Women voters emerged as a major constituency for all sides in this election. The NDA's messaging for women centred on welfare schemes, safety initiatives, and household-level benefits. Younger and first-time voters were addressed separately with themes of opportunity and development. Welfare-linked communication also attempted to reach Muslim voters, signalling an effort to broaden the alliance's appeal.
Riding the NDA wave, three smaller partners in the coalition - the LJP (RV), HAM-S and RLM - won 28 of 40 seats they contested, becoming key to the alliance's caste arithmetic in a state where voting following such faultlines are politically crucial.
Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) represents Dalit Paswans, Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) commands support among Dalit Manhjis, and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha attracts Kushwahas-a demographic the Rashtriya Janata Dal also targeted.
While HAM-S won five of six seats and RLM secured four of six, LJP (RV) won 19 of 28 seats contested. This continues the party's momentum from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when it swept all five seats it fought.
The turnaround marks a dramatic reversal from 2020, when Chirag Paswan contested 147 of 243 assembly seats and won just one, earning blame for the Janata Dal (United) dropping to 43 seats - its lowest tally since 2005.
"The LJP's performance helped the alliance tap Dalit and extremely backward caste pockets where the RJD once dominated. His contribution proved particularly important in central and western Bihar, where the LJP has built a strong local base," said Gyanendra Yadav, professor of Sociology, College of Commerce, Patna.
It was also a time for resurrection for the Upendra Kushwaha party which contested 6 seats in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election and won 4 of these 6 seats.
However, the party, one month after government formation, has been hit by internal dissension, as three of the four MLAs have openly opposed the appointment of Upendra Kushwaha's son, Deepak Prakash, as minister, despite the fact that he is neither a MLA or a MLC. This move led to significant internal resentment and allegations of "dynastic politics".
Manjhi's party, HAM-S also increased its tally from four to five.
Such a huge mandate also has its drawbacks. People's expectations would surge and the government would be under pressure to deliver.
The year 2026 may be different for Nitish, as there are whispers that the BJP wants him to vacate his CM chair for somebody from the saffron party. Both the BJP and JD(U) leaders are claiming that the majority of RJD MLAs have approached them, showing keenness to switch sides.
Belying his detractors' claims, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has proved his political mettle both in the last Lok Sabha election and also in the assembly election held this year, but faces new challenges in 2026.
While in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Nitish party, JD (U), by winning 12 out of 16 it contested, proved to be a crucial ally of BJP for formation of a new NDA government at the Centre, the state assembly election also proved to be yet another opportunity for him to prove his political acumen and relevance. Although the JD(U) finished second (85 seats) after BJP's 89 in the final tally, the NDA`s landslide victory in the assembly election is largely attributed to people`s trust in his leadership and his pro-women initiatives, and also their affection for him.
This year's Bihar elections will be remembered for an NDA sweep and the potent combination of JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi....
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