Trump's tariffs and stark choices for Indian IT cos
India, Aug. 9 -- Here's the story you are not being told. India's mighty IT sector, that miracle of offshore efficiency and engineering scale, is not as insulated from global politics as many would like to believe. The old belief that coders in Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad and Chennai are too far from Washington's reach to feel the heat, is now coming under strain.
India's IT strength is undeniable. Over 5.8 million technology professionals are augmented by more than the 1.5 million engineers graduating every year. But this machine runs on something more fragile than code or cost advantage. It runs on trust. Trust that payments will flow without interruption. Trust in the stability of cross-border contracts. Trust that a project won't be derailed midstream by an unexpected political move.
Both plain numbers and conversations behind closed doors point to the shift. In its most recent earnings call, Infosys CEO Salil Parekh and CFO Jayesh Sanghrajka admitted that tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are already delaying decisions. Retail clients are holding back budgets and struggling with disrupted supply chains. Manufacturing clients are rethinking how their supply chains are designed and where they are located. Discretionary spending has slowed. Deals are taking longer to close. Infosys, known for its measured language, is saying it aloud. Wipro had still to get back at the time of writing this.
At another company, spoken of in the same breath as Infosys and Wipro, people sitting on the bench had grown far too comfortable-not seeking new assignments, while the few who did seek, opted for projects in technologies they knew nothing about. This was at odds with the company's stated policy of matching assignments to people with technical experience. The result was frustration and disconnect that no IT firm can afford. One of the outcomes has been mass lay-offs, and by all accounts, the blood-letting isn't over.
Internal drift in IT companies is colliding with forces from outside. While the engineers remain in India, the contracts, the legal responsibilities and the payment systems often sit in the United States or in networks under US regulation. That is where the pressure bites. Clients are asking hard questions.: could payments be blocked? Could increase in tariffs freeze projects overnight?
Even though tariffs target goods, not services, they stoke inflation and reduce US clients' appetite for discretionary IT spending. Deal cycles are already slowing across manufacturing, logistics, and retail. And as seen in textiles, where US brands have shifted orders from India to Bangladesh and Vietnam to avoid heavy duties, a cautious realignment is already underway. It is no stretch then to imagine legal teams scrambling, contracts being fortified with firms quietly testing more economical geographies.
Replacing India is not easy. The United States cannot match the scale, skill or cost structure that Indian IT offers. Even with AI and automation, the shortage of skilled tech workers in the US remains real. India's edge comes from a mix of volume, capability, price and time zone advantage that no other country can replicate quickly. But despite that we should be prepared for margins to tighten and compliance costs to rise. The easy flow of trust that once defined this business is becoming more complicated and will test adaptability.
Some companies are already making the shift. Infosys has opened a Centre for advanced AI, cybersecurity and space technology at Hubballi, signalling a move into areas where technology and geopolitics meet. L&T Semiconductor Technologies is working to build one of India's first local chip fabrication plants. Tata Electronics is investing in a large semiconductor assembly and testing facility in Assam. Venture Capital is searching for embedded systems, robotics and industrial AI.
The choice before India's IT sector is stark. The music has changed and those who cannot find the rhythm will soon find themselves standing alone, wondering when the other dancers moved on leaving them behind....
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