Over 2,300 die in the city every year due to heavy rains: Study
Mumbai, Nov. 14 -- Intense rainfall accounted for nearly 8% of all deaths in Mumbai during the monsoon in the decade through 2015, according to a paper published on Wednesday in the multidisciplinary science journal, Nature. At 2,300-2,700 deaths per year, the toll was comparable to deaths due to cancer in the city from 2006 till 2015, while people living in slums accounted for 85% of all monsoon-related deaths during this period, the paper said.
The researchers mapped data from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation's death registration system onto the 89 postal zones in the city, classified into slum and non-slum areas. They juxtaposed this information with rainfall data from the municipal corporation's automatic weather station network, which captures precipitation every 15 minutes, alongside ward-level flooding records, tidal effects and long-term sea-level trends.
The study found that across the 10-year period, rainfall and flooding accounted for 7-8% of all deaths in the city during the monsoon season. Deaths occurred both immediately, through drowning, electrocution and road incidents, and in subsequent weeks, as floods triggered outbreaks of diseases like dengue, diarrhoea and malaria.
Rainfall deaths accounted for 11% of the deaths among slum residents during a monsoon season, but only 2.4% of deaths among those living outside of slum areas. A 150-mm rain day increased mortality risk by 2.9% in slum areas compared to 1.2% in non-slum regions. Children under five were most vulnerable to heavy rain, which increased their risk of death by 5.3%, followed by women whose mortality risk increased by 3.1%, and adults aged 65 years and above whose risk increased by 2.3%.
The gaps in death toll and rate reflected longstanding disparities between slum and non-slum areas with regards to housing conditions, drainage systems, sanitation, mobility and access to care, the researchers said.
Almost every ward in the city was affected by heavy rain and monsoon-related deaths increased over the decade as flooding became more frequent and intense, the study found. Rising sea levels and tidal influences also worsened stagnation of water in several neighbourhoods, it said.
Archana Patankar, founder of Green Globe Consulting and co-author, said mortality was noticeably higher in slum areas, mainly due to vector-borne and water-borne diseases spreading rapidly in stagnant water.
"If you look at how rainfall has become more erratic and how often the city floods now, the excess mortality after floods has likely increased over the past decade," she said.
Poor drainage and sanitation systems triggered many aftereffects of intense rain, such as outbreaks of dengue, diarrhea, malaria, said Ashwin Rode, research assistant professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago and corresponding author of the paper.
A 5-cm rise in sea level by 2030 will increase rainfall-related deaths by 7%, making up 9% of all deaths during the monsoon, the paper cautions. It recommends targeted public-health measures for flood-prone pockets - such as construction of storm water drains and integration of such pockets with early-warning and rapid-response systems.
Health economist Ravi Duggal said that the infrastructure in slums is so poor that every extreme weather event turns into a problem. "When heavy rain hits, homes get flooded, drains overflow, and people are literally wading through contaminated water. It's not surprising that mortality is highest here," Duggal said.
Women and children bear the brunt because they are constantly exposed to stagnant water, he noted. "The city's basic services are in shambles, and the administration shows little direction or urgency in fixing them," said Duggal....
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