Mumbai, Jan. 29 -- The sudden death of Ajit Pawar is expected to have a significant impact on Maharashtra politics, which has been witnessing upheavals since 2019, when the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray parted ways. Pawar was the deputy chief minister and head of the NCP, which has 41 MLAs in the state assembly and is a key constituent of the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The party has a strong presence in western and northern Maharashtra. Pawar was also a powerful figure in the cooperative sector and a prominent leader from the Maratha community, which has been dominant in the state's politics. At least in the immediate term, Pawar's death is unlikely to affect the stability of the BJP-led Mahayuti government, which has 230 MLAs in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly. NCP MLAs who had supported Pawar when he rebelled against his uncle and party founder Sharad Pawar and joined the BJP-led coalition in 2023 would like to continue the alliance. The political compulsions that forced them to take the decision still exist. The BJP, too, would encourage a leadership in the party that would maintain the status quo. However, a lot would depend on who leads the NCP and takes Ajit Pawar's position in the government. Apart from Pawar, the party's top leadership includes Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare. Lately, Ajit's wife, Sunetra, and son Parth, too, were involved in the party's decisions. "There are only two senior leaders in the party-Sunil Tatkare and Chhagan Bhujbal," said a senior NCP leader. "Sunetra or Parth would prefer to take up Ajit's place in the government. In both cases, there are doubts about whether they would be able to enjoy the support of the party's MLAs for long. And then, Sharad Pawar and [his MP daughter] Supriya Sule would be in the picture. In the end, it would depend on whom the majority of MLAs support to lead." Ajit's death has also cast doubt over any possible merger or reconciliation with Sharad Pawar. "While Ajit dada had a soft corner for his uncle and, lately, was again inching back towards the latter, other leaders, including his son Parth, are unlikely to have such a leaning. This could adversely affect the plans for merger, if there were any," said a senior NCP (SP) legislator. "Further, the merger will happen only if the majority of MLAs want it, but the fact is that none of them would want to leave the ruling alliance. If senior Pawar and Supriya Sule want to go with the BJP, things would be easier," the legislator added. Ajit Pawar's death comes as a setback for chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who had an excellent rapport with him. "Compared to Eknath Shinde, Ajit dada was a much less troublesome ally," said a senior BJP minister. "He was cooperative and well aware of his limitations. When it came to running the government, he was a strict administrator. Fadnavis will miss it. Now, Shinde could become a little stronger in the government." Pawar was a key factor in the BJP's plans to control western Maharashtra, a stronghold of Sharad Pawar. His joining the Mahayuti was one of the reasons why the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) fared badly in the 2024 assembly elections. Besides, he had a strong presence in the cooperative sector and was one of the few leaders who had a following among the Maratha community. The Mahayuti gained from him and his party. "While we have several people from the cooperative sector with us now, Shinde remains a popular Maratha leader. With Ajit no more in the picture, he could use the situation to his advantage," said the BJP minister. The major question being asked is whether the NCP will remain a strong political force now. Most of the party's legislators chose to side with Ajit Pawar because of his leadership. With Sharad Pawar reaching the twilight of his career, Ajit emerged as their choice, as he understood the state's politics, was very good at handling the party organisation, knew how to run the government, and how to protect their interests. "None of the current probables who can assume the leadership of the party come even close to him in terms of leadership capabilities," said the senior NCP leader quoted earlier. "In this background, several MLAs may choose to shift to parties that would suit their interests. It could mean going back to the Sharad Pawar-led party or the BJP, or parties in the Opposition. This is unlikely to happen immediately, as there are no major elections scheduled until the next Lok Sabha elections. However, things could change after a couple of years, and the party could lose its strength."...