Govt says Indian economy entering H2 on stable footing
New Delhi, Nov. 28 -- The finance ministry said in its monthly review that India's economy is entering the second half of the current fiscal on a stable footing, anchored by well-contained inflation, resilient domestic demand and supportive policy dynamics, while it also cautioned against global uncertainties.
As per the Monthly Economic Review for October released on Thursday, the macroeconomic developments in October indicate a stable and resilient domestic economy, supported by low inflation and firm consumption trends because of significant reduction in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates.
The GST Council on September 3 approved slashing rates on 375 items effective from September 22 with a revenue impact of about Rs.48,000 crore based on 2023-24 consumption patterns. The move gave a major boost to both urban and rural demands, reflected in record festive-season automobile sales.
The report credited cut in indirect tax rates, a favourable base effect, and falling food prices for easing headline inflation that was at an all-time low of 0.25% in October. It is sanguine about low inflation in the coming months. It added, "Core inflation remained stable, while the timely progress of Rabi sowing-supported by adequate soil moisture and healthy reservoir levels-continues to reinforce a benign food supply outlook."
"Overall, the economy enters the second half of FY26 on a stable footing, anchored by well-contained inflation, resilient domestic demand and supportive policy dynamics," it said. In this broader context, various independent economic assessments place real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Q2 FY26 in the range of 7.0-7.5%, indicating continued strength in underlying economic activity, it added. The government is scheduled to release GDP numbers for Q2 of FY26 on Friday. India's real GDP growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1 (April-June) of FY26. The monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on October 1 projected India's real GDP growth for the FY2025-26 at 6.8%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 6.4%, and Q4 at 6.2%....
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