MUMBAI, June 24 -- The recently released 'Maharashtra State Action Plan on Climate Change 2030' has some sobering predictions about the impact of climate change on the state's agriculture. The report predicts that major agricultural produce like sugarcane, cotton and soyabean could dip by 20 to 80% in the next 15 years, and the iconic Alphonso mango may have to be shifted out of Ratnagiri, dealing a major blow to farmers. Sugarcane, being a tropical crop, needs a temperature of between 27 and 38 degrees Celsius to grow. With substantial increase in temperature by 2040, its production could reduce by 40% to 80% in Marathwada and 20% to 40% in central Maharashtra. Excessive rainfall, which is expected to be the norm in the next 15 years, affects cotton pod development and maturity, boll formation and boll bursting stage, and will impact cotton production and quality. Soyabean yield too is expected to fall sharply, as a rise of just 1 degree Celsius results in a dip of 3% to 7%. In some districts such as Osmanabad, Solapur and Jalna, the per-acre production of sugarcane may increase by 20-40% owing to an increase in rainfall. "But the productivity (per tonne) of the cane may fall because of worse quality," says the report. The report projects shifting the production of mangoes from Ratnagiri, the hub of the Alphonso, as the output of mangoes is expected to drop by 80% to 90% owing to rising temperatures and relative humidity (60% to 90%). The report predicts a temperature rise of roughly 2% in the next 15 to 20 years. "As climate change intensifies, salt-affected areas are likely to increase, which will hinder the production of crops such as cotton, sugarcane, sorghum, wheat and maize, and horticulture crops, as salinity affects germination, vegetative growth and reproductive development phases of plant growth. As the projection is for an increase in rainfall and extreme rainfall days, soil erosion and loss of critical soil nutrients will be directly responsible for low soil fertility and crop yields," the 295-page report states. Climate change results in increasing temperatures, prolonged drought and water scarcity, leading to reduced fodder and drinking water for livestock and decreased productivity of livestock and poultry. The agriculture risk index ranks Parbhani, Osmanabad, Latur, Hingoli, and Ahmednagar as the most at-risk districts in Maharashtra. The livestock population declined after 2007, with a projected future increase in goat and sheep population and a decline in indigenous dairy cattle. Fertiliser consumption is expected to increase in correlation with agriculture productivity growth, and if the current trends continue, Maharashtra will be emitting 20.6 MtCO2e (20.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) into the atmosphere by 2050. Overall emissions from the agriculture sector may decline due to the decreasing livestock population. "Droughts, floods and cyclones have increased by three to four times in the last 10 years and even western parts have been witnessing cyclonic events frequently," said Abhijit Ghorpade, director of the state action climate cell. "The frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events are rising every year, and they will naturally impact agricultural produce in the next two decades. To reduce the impact on the agriculture sector, we are focusing on climate-resilient practices and sensitising farmers about cropping patterns and changes in crops. We have also urged the government to increase the budget outlay for climate substantially from 11.9% in 2023-24." To reduce the impact of climate change, the report recommends measures such as increasing tree cover by 500 square km by 2030, forest cover of 33% by 2050, a reduction in livestock emission by 10%, reduction in fertiliser emission by 15% and cut crop residue burning by 80% by 2030. It has pressed for a rise in climate finance from Rs 21,420 crore in 2023-24 to Rs 2,97,559 crore till 2030....