Win-win deal for India, EU
India, Jan. 28 -- India and the EU first launched their free trade negotiations in 2007, when the world was a very different place. Global growth seemed to have overcome cyclical disruptions, globalisation appeared almost invincible, and the prevailing economic sentiment was overflowing with unbridled optimism. These talks were suspended in 2013. Both India and Europe had their share of problems by that time, rooted mostly in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Since the time talks were relaunched in 2022 and gained momentum, the world has been dealing with the scars of a once-in-a-century pandemic's economic disruption and, in more recent times, a US government that has been forcing the my-way-and-not-the-globalisation-highway diktat down the world's throat. If globalisation, not just in the sense of freer markets but also fairer markets, has to be salvaged from its current crisis today, it needs powerful bilaterals that can revive everybody's confidence in the dying art of multilateralism.
It is in this larger backdrop that the Indo-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) announced in New Delhi on Tuesday can rightfully claim to be a game changer. Put together, India and the EU account for about one-fourth of the global economic output and population. If one were to take out the US and China, India and the EU will have a share of almost 40% and 30% in the rest of the world's GDP and population. It is not without reason that the agreement is being called the "mother of all trade deals". The ratification of the deal will take some time - such deals always do, and also because of the procedural logistics of each EU member-country ratifying it individually. Trade deals are often about the fine print, where lawyers, not leaders, have the final say. But the preliminary details released after PM Narendra Modi's bilateral with the EU leadership suggest a pragmatic and courageous attitude from both partners to see the agreement through.
India has offered significant - in fact, the largest ever - tariff concessions to the EU on many of its key export interests such as automobiles, alcoholic beverages, etc. It has done so while safeguarding its larger livelihood concerns in sectors such as dairy and farming. Europe, on the other hand, will ease India's market access in sectors where India's exports have a promise of growth and employment generation. It has also shown willingness to tweak its non-tariff barriers to rightfully accommodate an emerging market partner's concern about trade being both free and fair. That both parties have been able to agree on hitherto controversial subjects such as carbon tariffs, intellectual property rights-related issues, and data privacy concerns suggests that the issue-specific friction was successfully overcome by the lubricant of the larger good. Analysts will come up with their projections about what the Indo-EU FTA will entail in terms of a tangible increase in trade, both overall and across sectors. However, what is equally important to note is that the trade deal being finally worked out is more than just numbers.
As far as India is concerned, it finally represents a big leap of faith in embracing market openness vis-a-vis a large economic block with the confidence that the competition that follows will lead to creative destruction in the economy rather than creating insecurities. If India has to resurrect exports as an engine of growth, there is no other way but to embrace this larger philosophy. For the EU, getting the deal quickly ratified will reflect a crucial pivot from what many commentators see as inertia and regulatory cholesterol, which has made it a laggard in terms of growth and innovation, to the extent that it is being squeezed by both the US and China. Last but not least is the message the signing of the deal will send to the other side of the Atlantic.
The India-EU deal was finalised against the backdrop of the US's moves over the past year, including levying a steep 50% tariff on Indian exports last August, and, more recently, downplaying Europe's role in NATO and arm-twisting it over Greenland. Reports from the US suggest differences within the administration and the Republicans on the delay in the trade deal with India; Washington must feel a tinge of regret over what could have been as it watches from the sidelines India sign a mutually beneficial trade deal with its (India's) biggest trading partner, the EU. The India-EU defence partnership, also announced Tuesday, is likely to significantly increase that heartburn. Then, it is only to be expected that if a major power starts behaving unreasonably, other large powers will seek to forge alliances to their advantage.
Neither India nor the EU seeks a world where they would be seen as a hegemon - but Tuesday's deal should make it clear that they will not accept a world with a belligerent hegemon either....
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