Why the old regime in Nepal had to exit
India, Sept. 10 -- It started with a hit-and-run. A car that belonged to the Koshi province finance minister, a leader from the deposed Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli's party, knocked down an 11-year-old girl and sped off. The driver was taken into custody later but then released within 24 hours. Oli called it a minor incident and said that compensation would be paid. And that was that.
The incident took place in broad daylight. The visual of the dazed girl, slowly standing up and running to safety, went viral on social media platforms. "Gen Z" protestors would take note. They shared the footage on social media platforms, projecting Oli and his party leaders as an insensitive and self-centred bunch. Only a few days previously, a similar incident had taken place in Indonesia, where protests over members of parliament awarding themselves a $3,000-monthly housing allowance boiled over when a government vehicle ran over a delivery man. Though Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto rescinded the decision after nationwide protests, the damage was done. Like it was in Nepal. Nepali youth, tech-savvy and with a worldview of their own, anyway held a dim view of the three major political parties - the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN)-UML, Nepali Congress, and CPN (Maoist) - were outraged. They let it be known.
The old-party leaders and the luxurious lifestyle of their children and grandchildren have been under intense public scrutiny for years. Their expensive foreign trips, enrolment in academic institutions outside Nepal, and flaunting of expensive luxury brands were noted. These were leaders who did not inherit any family wealth but became rich after joining politics. The information was shared over social media platforms.
If old-school journalism had a separation line between news producers and readers, that line is blurred on social media platforms. Some pilots produce excellent content on aviation, doctors on medical innovation, and chefs do food podcasts. Nepal has seen a record rise in young content producers in recent years. Not surprisingly, the government announced a ban on social media. It backfired.
The anger over deeply entrenched nepotism and corruption peaked in three days following the hit-and-run incident. On Monday, it spilled over to the streets of Kathmandu, Itahari and Narayanghat, with Gen Z protestors, many of them college students in their uniforms. By the end of the day, at least 19 people, all of them young, were killed in a police crackdown that saw disproportionate use of force against unarmed civilians.
If the party bigwigs harboured any hope that the angry Gen Z's temper would cool down by the next day, it was soon gone. If anything, it got far worse. The protestors fanned out across the country and, in Kathmandu Valley, targeted all things perceived as belonging to the three largest parties - party offices, cars, and individual properties. A former prime minister and president of the Nepali Congress, Sher Bahadur Deuba was dragged out of his residence in Budhnilkantha. Oli resigned by late afternoon, but his whereabouts remain unknown. So is the case with another former prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda.
Within hours, thousands of protestors surrounded Oli's party headquarters in Chyasal and went on a victory rally. But the attacks continued - on the country's Supreme Court, Singha Durbar, the seat of government, and parliamentary premises. It was a symbolic dismantling of the old state apparatus. In 24 hours, Nepal changed.
So what is next?
Kathmandu's young and popular mayor Balen Shah is likely to be the next interim leader. As Oli stepped down and vandalism continued, Shah appealed to the protestors to calm down and help with the transition. He also called on them to avoid destroying public property, and declared that the next leader will be from the young generation.
To all those watching these turn of events in Nepal, some of these pointers would be useful. There seems to be little geopolitical games at play although Indian media may have played the "China hand" and some conspiracy theorists in Nepal see an American hand. Their argument: China's TikTok remained open under Oli while America's Meta apps were shut down. The pro-China conspiracy theorists hold that Oli is close to China, and hence, India wanted him out of office. The truth is that they give far too much importance to Oli. All these hypotheses are short on evidence.
However, what is evident from the ground, as I saw around CPN-UML headquarters, was that most protesters are very young. Young Nepalis are intelligent, have a belief in themselves, and are far more worried about their future than those we see quoted in newspapers every day. By all evidence, traditional media in Nepal appears as outdated as old-school party leaders.
Here is a serious lesson on not to underestimate the power of the young generation, who see the future better than older cohorts. They are plain frustrated with the ruling class that failed Nepal after 1990 and later, after the 2006 mass movements.
There are two possible scenarios. One, quick constitutional amendments that push through change. Two, a transition under the current constitution, although it could be far messier than before. Fresh elections will put constitutionalism in place, avoid political anarchy and possible large-scale violence, and offer renewed hope to the citizenry....
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