What has prevented another World War
India, Sept. 2 -- World War II began on September 1, 1939. Eighty-seven years later, the global landscape shows eerily similar geopolitical fault lines, yet with some crucial differences that have, so far, prevented another World War.
Let us first look at how WWII broke out. On September 1, 1939, Germany, under Adolf Hitler, attacked Poland to regain claimed territories, expand eastward for "Lebensraum" (living space), and assert dominance in Europe. The Nazi ideology viewed the Slavs as an inferior people, and Poland was seen as an obstacle to Germany's imperial ambitions. Despite signing a non-aggression pact with Poland in 1934, Hitler violated it, using a false flag operation at Gleiwitz to justify the invasion. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (August 1939) between Nazi Germany and the erstwhile Soviet Union secretly agreed to divide Poland, enabling Germany to attack without fearing Soviet resistance.
The conflict expanded when, on September 3, the UK and France declared war on Germany, honouring their alliance with Poland. The Soviet Union invaded Poland from the east on September 17, as per the pact with Germany. By October, Poland was defeated. In 1940-41, Hitler overran much of Western Europe (France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Norway). The euphoria of success made Hitler over-ambitious, following which he broke the pact with the Soviet Union In 1941 and invaded it (Operation Barbarossa), expanding the war into the East. Japan was already at war against China since 1937 and it became part of the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy in 1940, formally joining the Axis Powers. Reacting to the sanctions by the US, Japan attacked Pearl Harbour (Hawaii) on December 7, 1941, to cripple the US Pacific Fleet and prevent American interference in its expansion across Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Japan also attacked the Philippines, Malaya, and other Allied positions - formally jumping into WWII. This encouraged Germany and Italy to declare war on the US as well, making the conflict fully global. The Japanese miscalculated their attack as they failed to destroy US aircraft carriers, which were not in port that day. The US industrial and military response was swift and overwhelming, eventually leading to Japan's defeat with the dropping of atom bombs.
The trigger for WWII was the personality of a few leaders such as Hitler, and their aggression driven by expansionist and/or racist ideology. Hitler reflected charisma, authoritarianism, fanaticism, and paranoia - making him a uniquely dangerous leader. His ability to manipulate, paired with an extreme ideology and moral detachment, allowed him to orchestrate one of history's darkest periods.
Against the backdrop of the current geopolitical landscape, it is natural to examine whether similar conditions are being shaped by rising authoritarianism. Just as fascist regimes rose in the 1930s, today, we see the rise of assertive authoritarian powers challenging the post-WWII international order. Territorial disputes, as in 1939, are showing up in the war in Ukraine, China's aggressive designs in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and the constant border tensions in other regions (Armenia-Azerbaijan, Israel-Hezbollah, among others).
The world is facing heightened economic nationalism with the trade and tariff wars triggered by US President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again ideology. This has put global trade under strain, where supply chains are being weaponised and many nations are turning inwards, paralleling the protectionist and post-Depression sentiments of the 1930s.
Another important similarity between conditions then and now is the weakening of global institutions; just as the League of Nations failed to prevent war, institutions such as the UN and WTO are being increasingly seen as ineffective, often paralysed by great power rivalries. One notices the deep polarisation and alliances being formed such as in pre-WWII. Today, one sees a fragmented global order with formations like NATO, Quad, Brics, China-Russia-Iran trilateral ties and some proxy alliances that suggest a move towards bloc politics.
All this said, what is preventing another World War? Nuclear deterrence is the biggest game-changer. The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) keeps nuclear States in check since conflict escalation comes with existential risks. There is also a significant global economic interdependence - this deep interlinking of global economies, especially with China, makes total war economically catastrophic for all major powers.
Today, because of technology one can get real-time intelligence, ensuring transparency, unlike the conditions in 1939. Modern surveillance (satellites, open-source intelligence or OSINT, AI-based analysis, etc.) makes surprise invasions and deception much harder, which, of course, deters large-scale aggression.
While large-scale conventional forces would be difficult to assemble under the full gaze of technology, cyber and hybrid warfare would substitute the threat dimensions with major powers waging wars in cyber, information, and economic domains rather than getting locked in an open conflict. Proxy wars and grey-zone tactics have replaced conventional wars.
Heightened public awareness and anti-war sentiment across the globe that keep alive the memories of the mass destruction of global wars, act as democratic pressure points against war, supported by civil resistance movements.
There is a chance that public pressure would not allow authoritarian regimes to bring the catastrophe of war to humanity - even though some leaders could defy such opinions using their charisma to turn public opinion.
While we may seem to be on the brink today, there are guardrails such as those discussed here. Yet, the system remains fragile. If diplomacy fails, or if an accidental escalation occurs (like a miscalculated strike or even an AI-based decision error), another World War may not seem completely ruled out - there are deterrences, the threat has not been eliminated. The key lies in resuscitating and reinforcing global norms and multilateral cooperation before the similarities between pre-WWII conditions and those today grow sharper....
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