Welcome thaw in trade impasse
India, Feb. 4 -- On Monday night, US President Donald Trump announced that he was slashing US tariffs on India from 50% to 18%. Trump's announcement was followed by PM Narendra Modi's acknowledgement of Trump's gesture and reiterating his commitment to a mutually beneficial Indo-US relationship. This marks a welcome thaw in the Indo-US trade impasse. Things had only gone south with Trump first imposing a 25% tariff in August, and then, topping it with an additional 25%. This was followed by several provocative statements from various members of the Trump administration. Good sense has prevailed and it should help both the countries. Markets have cheered the deal, as expected.
To be sure, there are still things in the realm of the unknown. Trump's announcement of "zero tariffs" on US imports in India and his setting a target of India buying American goods worth $500 billion - he has not mentioned a timeline - will require more clarity from India's side. Both sides have indicated that the fine print of the agreement is still being worked out. There is nothing wrong in such an approach, especially in Trump's context. One will have to wait for more information to be released for a detailed cost-benefit assessment of the deal for India. This assessment will include concerns around critical sectors such as agriculture and dairy. It would be premature to summarily dismiss the importance of the deal citing these concerns unless detailed information is available.
The details aside, is there a larger message from the trade negotiations with the Trump administration? Three things can be listed.
Patience, in the face of frequent provocation, often outside the realm of trade negotiations, has helped a deal. India's political leadership deserves credit for it. Projecting resilience via successful diversification, such as the finalisation of the Indo-EU trade deal helped as well. India was also successful in conveying that even the US highest tariffs did not really lead to a collapse in Indian exports or larger economy. Last but not the least, there seems to be a larger policy pivot in the overall approach that the quid pro quo factor has become stronger in the current world order for India to be able to exploit export opportunities.
Trump's US is known for reneging on even agreed deals. It is the larger lessons which should continue to drive India's approach to such negotiations....
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