India, Dec. 23 -- China-Japan ties are likely to see a prolonged chill after newly minted Japanese Prime Minister (PM), Sanae Takaichi, described a Taiwan Strait conflict as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. Beijing seized on the remark to push its narrative and signal regional dominance, even pressing Washington to toe its line. But the real story lies beyond the rhetoric. Japan is increasing defence spending and strengthening military posture, while US policy towards China remains competitive, even on the issue of Taiwan. In order to grasp the evolution of the recent spat, it is first important to understand the context around Takaichi's remarks. First, under Japan's security legislation, declaring a situation "survival-threatening" legally allows the government to activate collective self-defence. The current controversy stems from Takaichi's comments around a hypothetical scenario of a blockade of Taiwan. She said that if American forces were to attempt to break the blockade, Japan could use force to work with them. In other words, she was not talking about Japan independently deploying forces or waging war over Taiwan. Second, Takaichi is not the first leader to articulate such a position. In 2021, then-deputy PM Taro Aso made a similar comment at a fundraising event in Tokyo. The same year, PM Shinzo Abe declared that a Taiwan contingency would be a Japan contingency. The Chinese response to this entailed repeated public admonishment, soliciting other States' endorsement of its position, curtailing people-to-people ties, economic coercion and direct threats. While demanding that Takaichi retract her comments, the Chinese side has engaged in a sustained disinformation campaign to shape the global narrative and policy orientation on Taiwan. For instance, Chinese commentators have argued that Takaichi's remarks indicate a desire to revive Japanese "militarism", and pose "a grave threat to peace in the Taiwan Strait and to regional security and stability". Such developments must, therefore, be resisted by regional States. Significantly, Chinese officials and commentators have contended that the PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan is an outcome of the post-World War II international order, which must not be undermined. This was the argument that Chinese president Xi Jinping underscored to US president Donald Trump in their recent call. Soon after that call, some have argued that China was establishing a new dynamic with the US as a partner in promoting its vision of the post-War order. The fact that Trump called Takaichi soon after his conversation with Xi added weight to this perspective. Reporting suggests that the Taiwan issue was discussed during the call, although the Japanese government has denied this. Whatever the scope of the discussion, it is foolhardy to believe that the US is being co-opted by Beijing into its worldview around the Taiwan issue. For sure, this is how Beijing would like to frame the discourse. In fact, a prominent commentary in the People's Daily claimed that the Trump-Takaichi call had "significant practical implications" and both China and the US had a "shared responsibility.to jointly safeguard the post-war international order and resolutely oppose any attempts and actions to revive militarism or undermine regional and global peace and stability". On the contrary, what is likely taking place is that the Trump administration is interested in sustaining the positive momentum in the broader US-China relationship for now. Trump is clearly keen on trying to ease domestic pressures on the farm sector and arrive at some sort of a broader economic agreement. Trump's recap of the call and treasury secretary Scott Bessent's summary of the talks are indicative of this. None of this, however, means that Trump or the administration at large does not view the relationship with China from a competitive lens. Rather, it indicates that for the moment, Washington is prioritising immediate economic interests. Beijing, meanwhile, is seeking to leverage the moment and gain some tangible acquiescence on its position with regard to Taiwan. For this purpose, it will use the opportunities presented to manufacture crises and gain the concessions that it can. This, in fact, has been a pattern of Chinese behaviour over the past few years, as it has sought to expand its red-lines, limiting others' ability to engage with Taiwan. Beijing understands that if the US is seen as shifting and dithering on Taiwan, it will heighten the anxieties of America's regional allies. That said, it is also true that Trump wants allies and partners to spend more on defence and share greater burden. Consequently, they are all committing greater defence spending and capability development. Japan, in fact, is on track to expand its defence budget to 2% of GDP well ahead of schedule. In addition, it is moving ahead to deploy Type 03 Chu-SAM missiles on Yonaguni island near Taiwan. Moreover, the US has also steadily intensified military drills with Japan. Some of these exercises are reportedly rehearsing joint operational plans for a Taiwan Strait conflict. It is these tangible actions that impact the balance of power rather than words. In addition, as much as there is anxiety around US policy with regard to Taiwan, it is also the case that Trump's administration approved $1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in November, and a few days later, weapons worth $11 billion to Taipei. These are substantive developments that matter much more than rhetoric....