Trumpian jolt to India is debilitating, but not fatal
India, Sept. 7 -- Any serious jolt in an individual's life should ideally lead to a period of reflection, a reassessment of one's capabilities and limitations, a meditation on the way ahead. So it is for nations.
In recent years, a close India-US relationship had become the central tenet of India's foreign policy. The jolt delivered to that perception by US President Donald Trump's irrational aggression is a serious one. It ranks right up with some memorable jolts of similar voltage: the Chinese betrayal and aggression in 1962, the US Seventh Fleet sailing into the Bay of Bengal in 1971, and the furious landslide of "a ton of bricks" in the shape of sanctions post the 1998 nuclear tests.
But those episodes, however unacceptable, could be explained: An overly idealistic reading of China's intentions in 1962, America's desperation to create an opening to China in 1971, and Clinton's anger at the body blow delivered by India in 1998 to the inherently discriminatory nuclear non-proliferation regime.
But Trump's despatch of the wrecking ball to the steadily rising edifice of India-US relations is woefully bereft of not only reason but even decency. More so since, unlike the other situations, the attack is on a relationship that was in a particularly good place, having been nurtured by leaders on both sides, including Trump, for the last quarter century.
A crisis shows up things in bold relief, like several of our assumptions that got the veneer of established fact. Space permits us to mention three.
The first was the belief that India had the measure of Donald Trump - that having dealt with him with reasonable success in his first term, we would continue to coast on his safe side during the second by a judicious mix of cajoling, flattery, blandishments, and perceived chemistry.
The second assumption was that Trump would follow the strategic logic of his recent predecessors and see India as a crucial lynchpin of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific: a democratic, economically strong partner against an increasingly muscular China.
That logic had facilitated the Indo-US nuclear deal, a closer defence partnership and the revival of Quad, the last on Trump's watch. Encouraged by this US strategy, and impelled by Chinese aggression in 2020, India shed some of its demureness in Quad and took clearer postures on defence exercises and maritime domain awareness. The third assumption was that India had a fifth column in the US in its five-million-strong diaspora; increasingly politically active and visible, the diaspora was assumed to be a strong supporting pillar of the relationship.
These assumptions have been largely belied by the current crisis and an honest reassessment is useful.
First, the playbook of Trump 1.0 was outdated. He is a different force in his second coming: uninhibited, unguided, and vengeful. His advisors are primarily loyalists. Strategically inexperienced, none of them has emerged as a champion for the India-US relationship; the sycophancy of the Washington court would make Kim Jong Un envious. There are countries that pay tribute with gifts, Nobel Prize recommendations, crypto deals and real estate franchises, all a sort of high-level hafta or protection money. We have done our bit, but his ego proved to be larger than the rallies we organised. Indian corporates may buy more or invest more if that helps, but more patently transactional offers, personal blandishment, or ego massages would be demeaning and against India's dignity. In any case, there is no guarantee that this would work.
Second, making common cause against China is not critical for Trump. Chances are that he would blithely go over our heads, given the opportunity, to cut a beautiful deal with President Xi Jinping; after all, Xi's military parade has proved to be brilliantly superior to the rag-tag walk-along that Pete Hegseth organised in Washington on Trump's birthday. Our democracy too doesn't mean a thing for Trump, even less than America's does. Our China+1 possibilities will be happily sacrificed: Remember his admonishment of Apple's Tim Cook (Trump had called him Tim Apple in his first term as President) for daring to manufacture iPhones in India.
And third, our approach to the diaspora needs a rethink. The majority of Indian-Americans pursue their dreams, their comfortable lives, and their successful careers; some occasionally dabble in politics by funding Congressmen. We should wish them well and welcome their attachment to India. When the going is good, they also serve, to borrow from TS Eliot, to "swell a progress, start a scene or two," and this makes for good optics. But a fifth pillar they are not. What has been disappointing is the near total silence of the Indian Americans in positions of power - in the Trump administration, the US Congress, the India Caucus, the top tech industry. Here too there lies a cautionary tale.
Let us stop going to absurd levels every time an Indian name rises in America. There is no reason to perform havans, or search out long lost uncles and long forgotten chitthis in our towns and villages and drag them before television cameras. When the chips are down, none of this means a thing. By celebrating these Americans as "sons, daughters, or sons-in-law" of India we actually handicap them, open them up to charges of split loyalties.
The Trumpian jolt has been debilitating but not fatal. Yet more pain in the shape of tariffs or restrictions on legal migration may come. It is true that trust - that ephemeral colouring of the safflower - has crumbled, but the relationship with the US is too consequential to give up on.
Tuning down our expectations, discarding our assumptions, we need to approach it realistically through hard-nosed, patient and professional diplomacy. Get the best trade deal we can, blunt Trump's aggression with tact and dignity, and continue with process-driven engagement. Develop champions for the relationship, find whisperers in high places and nurture constituencies in the US Congress, media, and universities. It may not take long for the wheel to turn.
Meanwhile, as Tianjin has shown, there are other partners on the dance floor. But they too hide a stiletto or exchange side glances. Dance we must, but the floor is getting ever smaller and the atmosphere increasingly antagonistic: Trump has already consigned us, along with Russia, to the camp of "deepest, darkest, China"; his subsequent positive overture, to which we have correctly responded politely, only serves to highlight the need to insure ourselves against his pendulum like mood swings. India's destiny is not a function of the anger of one great power or the indulgence of another. It is rooted in our history and civilisation, in the values espoused by our founding fathers, in our championing of global concerns. Let us take comfort in that belief and reach out to constituencies that need us as a beacon and a voice for their causes: The Global South awaits. India needs to play to its strengths and not to its ambitions; the invitations to the high table will come....
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