Saving climate action in the age of global fragmentation
India, Aug. 31 -- The world is navigating turbulent times. Conflict continues in West Asia and Ukraine. US trade tariffs loom large over India and global commerce, and China's restriction on rare earth exports disrupts supply chains. Energy security is back on top of national agendas, with several major powers retreating from their climate commitments. In this fragmented world, the multilateral climate regime faces its greatest test yet. At the same time, the climate crisis itself cannot be ignored. News of extreme heat waves and flash floods inundating cities are commonplace across nations.
We are no longer in the world that signed the Paris Agreement in 2015: Not meteorologically, not politically, not economically, or socially. Today, the international climate architecture is under threat - not only in its letter but, more worryingly, in its spirit.
The letter - national targets, finance flows, technology cooperation - is faltering. At the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), we estimate that only two developed countries - Belarus and Norway - are on track to meet their 2030 climate targets. Many others are backsliding. But more troubling is the erosion of the Paris spirit - the understanding that climate action is a collective geopolitical and macroeconomic imperative. That shared, cooperative method is now at risk of being downgraded, sidelined, or eclipsed by more immediate crises.
We are in a world of polycrises: Economic stagnation, growing debt burdens, rising disasters, and the ongoing challenge of decarbonisation. Nearly 60 countries are now spending more on debt servicing than on education or health - forget climate action. Vulnerable countries face repeated shocks that aren't even being counted, let alone compensated.
South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, is at the frontline of a converging climate and economic crisis. From 1970 to 2022, the Asia Pacific region accounted for over half of global disaster-related deaths (over two million) and nearly half the economic losses ($2.7 trillion), reflecting the region's outsized vulnerability. In South Asia, heatwaves, sea-level rise, and flash floods, among other climate impacts, are lived realities. This is more than an environmental emergency; it is an economic risk. Agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and public health are all exposed unless resilience is built into the heart of development.
As Brazil prepares to host the COP30 climate negotiations, we find ourselves in a moment of fracture - but also of redesign. If countries choose to act through three strategic pathways - internal transformation, strategic bilateralism, and smart plurilateralism - we can begin to redefine climate action even as the global order shifts. For South Asia, this is a critical opportunity to reframe climate action as a lever for growth, jobs, stability, and investment.
As global climate cooperation frays, South Asia cannot afford to wait. The region must chart its own path through a new theory of change-by embedding climate action into economic planning, rethinking bilateral partnerships, and forming agile coalitions that get things done.
First, embed climate resilience in domestic economic strategies. Energy security, jobs, and clean power must go hand in hand. India is proving that self-reliance works - not just in energy generation but in building a future-ready economy. Clean energy is creating new jobs, anchoring industrial growth, and cutting costs. Take the decentralised renewable energy (DRE) technologies powering rural enterprises across India. Research by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) finds that DRE solutions - such as solar dryers, micro solar pumps, and energy-efficient food processors - have raised average annual incomes by Rs.40,000, avoided more than 29,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, and supported over 33,000 livelihoods across 30 states and Union territories. Nearly half of these users are women. These clean technologies reduce emissions, expand irrigation, and create rural jobs - demonstrating that climate action, when localised, is also an economic multiplier for resilience and inclusive growth.
The recipe is clear: Climate action must be woven into our economic fabric, not treated as a standalone sector. For South Asia, this requires green industrial policies that create markets through public procurement, financial innovation to channel capital where it's needed most, and skilling to train millions for the jobs of tomorrow.
Second, with multilateral forums gridlocked, bilateral deals must move beyond donor-recipient dynamics to mutual gains. India's collaboration with Sweden on green steel - a sector responsible for 8% of global emissions - is an example of this shift. India developed the world's first national taxonomy for sustainable steel, setting benchmarks for decarbonising heavy industry. The Australia-India Critical Minerals Partnership, meanwhile, helps secure lithium for India's electric vehicle ambitions while strengthening trusted supply chains across the Indo-Pacific. These deals work because they exemplify asymmetric reciprocity, where partner countries match strengths with each others' needs. Such approaches offer climate-vulnerable countries a lifeline while stabilising global supply chains.
The third pathway requires building a "coalition of the doing" - flexible, results-oriented groupings that bypass diplomatic gridlock. Agile coalitions must target specific challenges. The Global Biofuels Alliance, launched by India alongside 19 countries including the US and Brazil, is a case in point - broadening the global clean energy conversation beyond just solar and hydrogen, and opening up new climate-aligned trade routes. The Mangrove Alliance for Climate, with Indonesia and Australia, demonstrates how shared ecosystems can drive nature-based cooperation across borders. Meanwhile, the International Solar Alliance, co-founded by India and France, continues to pool capital and technology for scaling renewables, while the Leadership Group for Industry Transition, with India and Sweden, is pushing industrial decarbonisation through common standards and collaborative innovation. These models have a chance of success because they are voluntary, focused, and built to deliver within political cycles - not diplomatic epochs.
The physics of climate change won't pause for current geopolitics. COP30 must be the summit where we stop debating action and start building what we all need: An economy that thrives because it protects, not in spite of it. Our children's future depends not on assigning blame or salvaging a broken status quo, but on writing new rules for a world that's already changed....
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