Rise in Nov E-way bills signals uptick in activity
new delhi, Dec. 12 -- An increase in the number of e-way bills generated for the shipment of goods within and across states suggested there was an uptick in economic activity in November after a dip in October, according to data available from Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN), the company that processes tax returns.
In November, businesses raised 129.8 million e-way bills, the second-highest ever, and about 2.4% more than the 126.8 million bills raised in October.
This increase in the movement of goods suggests GST revenue collection could get a boost in December after a modest 0.7% improvement in November to Rs.1.7 lakh crore, owing to sharp GST rate cuts that took effect from 22 September and external trade headwinds for India's manufacturing sector.
The government expects the immediate impact of the tax cuts on revenue collections will be compensated for by improving consumption demand, which will boost revenue receipts in due course.
Data from the statistics ministry showed manufacturing sector output expanded at an impressive 9.1% and household spending expanded 7.9% in the September quarter, helping the economy to grow at 8.2%. Policymakers are hopeful that the Indian economy will grow at 7% or more in the current financial year.
Given that GST cuts in September significantly lowered tax incidence across several categories, and October saw naturally elevated festive-season spending, any subsequent rise in supplies or consumption during November offers an important signal, said Rajat Mohan, senior partner at AMRG & Associates, a chartered accountancy firm.
It suggests that domestic demand may be strengthening beyond the pre-festive baseline, he added, which reinforces the government's hypothesis that incremental consumption can be stimulated through calibrated GST cuts.
"If this emerging trend continues, it could validate the policy approach of leveraging tax rationalization to broaden the consumption base, thereby supporting both industry volumes and medium-term revenue stability," Mohan said. Early signs point towards a positive trajectory in domestic consumption, which could contribute modestly to GST collections in the coming months, he added.
The HSBC India manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), another high-frequency indicator, showed on 1 December that India's manufacturing industry registered strong growth in November, although expansion in output and new orders were the slowest since February.
At 56.6 in November, the seasonally adjusted index was comfortably above the neutral mark of 50 and its long-run average of 54.2, S&P Global said that day. A reading above 50 indicates growth over the previous month. The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said on Sunday that 3.3 million vehicles were sold in the retail market in November, a 2.14% increase over the same period a year earlier....
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