New Delhi, June 7 -- Higher supplies of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes, softer global gold prices, and a favourable base effect may have eased retail inflation further to 3% or below in May, the lowest since April 2019, according to economists. That would mark a fourth consecutive month of sub-4% print. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday lowered its inflation projection for the April-June quarter to 2.9% from its earlier projection of 3.6%. The consumer inflation reading for May is likely to fall to 2.7% primarily due to a drop in food inflation, Dipanwita Mazumdar, economist at Bank of Baroda, said in a recent note. "Even globally, food and energy prices remain in favour. Q1FY26 also has the advantage of a favourable base for the inflation print," Mazumdar said, adding that "inflationary pressures remain skewed to the downside". "The volatile TOP (tomatoes, onions, and potatoes) prices are still holding ground supported by better production. A moderation in the gold price in May '25 would also largely cap core inflation," she added. The RBI on Friday lowered its inflation forecast for 2025-26 to 3.7%, with estimates of 2.9% for the ongoing April-June first quarter, 3.4% for Q2, 3.9% for Q3, and 4.4% for Q4. RBI had previously forecast retail inflation at 4% for 2025-26, with quarterly estimates of 3.6% for Q1, 3.9% for Q2, 3.8% for Q3, and 4.4% for Q4. "The risks are evenly balanced," RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. Typically, higher availability of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes eases food inflation, as increased supply tends to lower prices. According to data from the Unified Portal for Agricultural Statistics (UPAJ), TOP arrivals rose 26.4% year-on-year in May, reversing a 16.1% decline in the same month last year. Mazumdar, however, cautioned that weather-related risks remain. "These volatile TOP prices are already showing some degree of monthly buildup in prices. Especially for potato- and onion-producing states, rainfall has been in excess or large excess," she said. "Thus, vigilance is required for any weather-related disruption in prices in the coming days." Union Bank of India has pegged retail inflation for May at 3%, driven by easing prices of cereals and pulses, even as prices in other categories firmed up. In a recent report, it added that weak demand and stable commodity prices are likely to keep core inflation under check. Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.16% in April year-on-year, easing from 3.34% in March and 3.61% in February. In comparison, inflation stood at 4.83% in April last year. Food inflation in April eased to 1.78% from 2.69% in March, 3.75% in February, and 4.83% in the same month last year. India last saw CPI inflation fall below 3% in April 2019....