India, March 16 -- It is rare in Indian politics for a set of elections to hold more value for the national Opposition than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Yet, in the upcoming polls in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Assam, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has far more to lose than the BJP. Three of these four states and the Union territory of Puducherry represent a final frontier that has consistently resisted the BJP's ideological and political campaign. Five years ago, victories in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Bengal boosted the Opposition and carried it through two subsequent years of electoral drubbing. Retaining control this time will be key for an Opposition struggling with a shrinking national footprint. The stakes for victory, therefore, are both enormous and symbolic. Three things are noteworthy. One, these elections are crucial for regional parties and issues. West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are governed by regional parties, and the CPM, the incumbent in Kerala, is almost a regional party. Even in the only province where the contest is between national parties, Assam, the issues and campaign will decidedly be regional. Over the past 10 years, regional parties have often had more successes than the Congress in holding off the BJP, using a cocktail of personal charisma, regional dynamics, and welfare handouts. The spotlight is squarely on Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin and Pinarayi Vijayan. Two, after a stellar performance in the 2024 general elections, where it slashed the BJP's tally by 60-odd seats and reduced it to a minority for the first time in a decade, the Opposition's performance has been tepid, sabotaging itself in Haryana and losing big in Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar. These five assembly polls appear to be the best opportunity for it to retrieve some ground. And finally, these elections are also about the Election Commission of India (ECI). Questions hang over the fate of millions of voters whose franchise is under adjudication in West Bengal. ECI has slashed the number of phases to two - the lowest since 2001. Will Bengal's usually violent grassroots politics be less bloody this time? Will the increased presence of central forces (in 2021, central forces were allegedly involved in firing that led to the deaths of four people in north Bengal) ratchet up tensions? All questions will be answered on May 4....