India, Feb. 5 -- On February 2, US President Donald J Trump wrote on X: "Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister (PM) Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal." A little while later, PM Modi wrote: "Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%". "I look forward," the PM made clear, "to working closely" to take the India-US "partnership to unprecedented heights". The tariff reduction from 50%, if the penalty for importing oil from Russia was to be included, to 18% has set the stage for a breather, at the very least. As expected, the markets in India have quantitatively welcomed the announcements. In a world where tariffs and the threat of tariffs have been increasingly normalised as an instrument of statecraft, at least for the US, 18% is excellent news. The details on the trade deal are still trickling in. At the very least, those sectors in India focussed on exports to the US and elsewhere can take a breath. The implications, if any, for market access to India's agricultural sectors are yet to be outlined. On balance, and while details, of course, matter, this is generally good news. There is too much at stake between India and the US. Importantly, that the two principals are talking and celebrating each other's pronunciations on the deal, and the future of this crucial relationship is even better news. There is little doubt that apart from the strategic patience and the tireless efforts by Indian leaders and negotiators, the ambassadors in both countries did more than turn a knob. Some commentators have argued that a "strategic reset" is in the works. Reportedly, Indian negotiations with regards to a joint statement that frames India's approach to Pax Silica have been concluded. This initiative, spearheaded by Jacob Helberg, an undersecretary in the US State Department, is designed to create "secure and resilient supply chains" for advanced technologies and critical minerals amongst "trusted partners". This is not a treaty. It is not a declaration that all countries sign up to. Rather, it's a framework with several bespoke agreements entered into between the US and a specific country. No two agreements are identical. As it stands, India is expected to formally join this framework, with a carefully negotiated statement, sometime in February. The negotiations have been ongoing for several months. Yet, in the year since PM Modi visited Washington D.C. in February 2025, it is increasingly clear that the ground has shifted regarding the India-US relationship. There is no "reset" to the past. What we are witnessing is a reframing of the future. First, no one in India will take the US for granted. That the wheels came off the relationship only a couple of months ago is a fact that will stay with Indian leaders and negotiators for a long time. This is not to say that the strategic trust has altogether broken. It has not. The relationship today is shaped by forces and communities far larger than the world of officialdom. For instance, following the penalty of an additional 25% on India for importing Russian oil, and the near-freeze in the conversations between the two principals, technology-related investments in India from the US soared. American technology tsars were shaken but not deterred from making multi-billion-dollar commitments to India. There are several announcements that have been lined up for the AI Impact Summit to be hosted in New Delhi between February 16 and 20. Many have already been made, amounting to well over $50 billion. Further, at a time when American spokespersons sledged against India daily, their CEOs travelled to India in droves. There is something unusual about these twin tracks. Years of investment in the relationship have clearly created a degree of resilience that exists outside of official practices. Moreover, the functional relationship between administrators and technocrats continued as planned. Meetings were not cancelled. VTCs were not unplugged. From discussions on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to strengthening defence ties, there was evidence of business still getting done. Nonetheless, what is also clear is that the uneasiness in the political track, to put it mildly, was arrested in time. The trade-led announcements were well timed too: A fortnight before, everyone from Jensen Huang to Sam Altman and Dario Amodei to senior officials in the White House were travelling to New Delhi for the Impact Summit. Hundreds of American venture capitalists, CEOs, and other technical experts are expected. Second, as a result of America's advance in the past year, India's approach to strategic diversification has been given real legs. The Free Trade Agreement with the European Union (EU) is as much about India's changing geopolitical realignments as it is about market access and economic growth. Doing more with the EU, the UK, and individual European States, mostly Germany and France, is not a hedge or a bet, but a part and parcel of a reimagination of Indian strategic priorities on both sides. As German officials make clear, "there is no choice but to work hand in glove". Whilst several of these lines of efforts with the EU and the UK, for instance, have been in the making on their own terms, the recent experience with the US has provided the space, ironically, to do more and sharpen the vision for an outcome-based approach to Europe. In sum, the announcement of a trade deal between India and the US is, of course, excellent news. But the future will not look like the past. This is not a reset. This is neither about developing a membrane for caution. It is, in many ways, about developing a texture for determined diversification, with the US only a part of the mix....