Moody's sees India growth steady at 6.5%
New Delhi, Nov. 14 -- Robust internal demand, export diversification amid punitive US tariffs, and sustained infrastructure investment will help India retain its fastest-growing major economy tag for the next couple of years.
India's economy will likely expand at a steady 6.5% pace through 2027, up from a projected 6.4% in calendar year 2026, and 7% in 2025, Moody's Ratings said in its Global Macro Outlook 2026-27 on Thursday.
The rating agency said government-led capital expenditure and resilient household consumption will continue to power the country's economy, even as private investment stays cautious.
"We expect Brazil and India-the fastest-growing G-20 economies-will grow at 2.0% and 6.5%, respectively, through 2027, supported by domestic and export diversification. India's economic growth is supported by robust infrastructure spending and solid consumption, although the private sector remains cautious about business capital spending," Moody's said.
Indian exporters, the report underlined, have adapted deftly to shifting trade dynamics amid US tariffs.
"Indian exporters, facing 50% US tariffs on some products, have succeeded in redirecting exports-its overall exports climbed 6.75% in September even as shipments to the US dropped 11.9%," it said.
"We expect its economy to continue to grow around 6.5% in 2026 and 2027, supported by a neutral-to-easy monetary policy stance amid low inflation. International capital flows because of positive international investor sentiment have buffered external shocks," it added.
Moody's assessment comes amid a volatile global backdrop marked by diverging monetary policies, tariff disputes, and a reordering of trade alliances fuelled by US President Donald Trump's trade war.
The agency expects world GDP growth to hover between 2.5% and 2.6% in 2026 and 2027, slower than the 2.9% pace in 2024, as advanced economies expand modestly while emerging markets remain the stronger growth engine.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects the country's economy to expand by 6.8% in FY26.
The ministry of finance, on the other hand, has pegged it in a more circumspect 6.3%-6.8% range.
To be sure, the US has imposed tariffs of up to 50%, including 25% as punishment for buying Russian oil, on select Indian goods, including steel, aluminium, and certain manufactured items.
While the new duties have hit Indian exporters in key categories, India has so far avoided escalation, focusing instead on diversifying export markets and pursuing trade talks with the European Union and other partners.
Meanwhile, the RBI is maintaining its repo rate, reflecting a neutral-to-easy stance as inflation stays subdued and growth remains strong, said the Moody's Ratings report.
India's retail inflation eased to a record low of 0.25% in October, down sharply from 1.54% in September, reflecting a broad-based moderation in food and fuel prices.
At its policy meeting earlier in October, the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, maintaining a neutral stance....
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