Monetary policy in a time of war
India, April 10 -- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI did not change either the policy rate or its stance on Wednesday. Because there were no full year growth and inflation projections in the February MPC meeting, there are no tangible takeaways on the growth-inflation impact of the war in West Asia. That said, India's FY27 GDP growth will be significantly lower than FY26's, and inflation will be higher than last year. The MPC and the RBI governor were both unambiguous about the adverse fallout of the war for the Indian economy. There are concerns about supply-side turbulence over and above the terms of trade shock from higher crude prices. Then there is the financial and currency market turbulence that is forcing RBI to intervene beyond its usual "growth-inflation balancing" mandate.
The situation, as far as the war's economic fallout is concerned, continues to be fluid. This time, the MPC met against the backdrop of a ceasefire announcement. Whether or not the ceasefire endures remains to be seen. There is thus a lot of merit in waiting for more clarity on the dynamics of the war before committing to a policy response. RBI will have to choose its course cautiously, given the unconventional nature of the problem. For example, if inflation does rise because of supply-side disruptions, a knee-jerk interest rate hike might not help and, in fact, end up eroding demand rather than solving the problem at hand. Prudent supply-side management by the government is needed. Such an exercise could necessitate a higher than usual fiscal deficit as the government tries to procure more supplies from international markets. This might require a different kind of intervention from RBI. What is needed is a nimble policy response where the monetary and fiscal arms are in sync. It isn't business as usual for the economy. It shouldn't be for RBI....
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