Many positives for India amid uncertainty: CEA
New delhi, May 30 -- India's economy is expected to grow in the range of 6.3-6.8% in FY26, as noted in the Economic Survey and may sustain this over a longer period despite an uncertain global and political environment, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday.
He added that there were several positives for India in terms of opportunities in sectors hit by US tariffs, a favourable monetary policy environment that promotes growth, the tax relief given to the middle class this year and the progress and even distribution of the monsoon.
"So, if you count these positive factors, to be able to achieve the growth rate between 6.3% and 6.8% that we pencilled in the Economic Survey and sustain it for a longer period seems like a reasonable prospect. The International Monetary Fund agrees with us," Nageswaran said during his keynote address at the CII Annual Business Summit 2025 in New Delhi.
He added that, according to the IMF, India's GDP in dollar terms is expected to rise to $6.8 trillion by FY31 and that the IMF's implicit forecast on the exchange rate is that the Indian rupee will depreciate by only 0.5-0.8% a year going forward.
Nageswaran advised Indian industry to be prepared to deal with a stronger currency in the coming years by becoming more competitive through productivity improvements. Deregulation, both at the policy level and corporate level, will play an important role here, he added.
He cautioned, however, that industry not be overly cautious in this uncertain global economic and political environment. "From a short-term, cyclical perspective, we should not be overly consumed by global uncertainty. We are a domestic economy with 60% private consumption share of GDP. To sustain this, capital formation by the private sector, taking over the mantle from the government of last six years. investing, hiring, compensating, creating aggregate demand growth and therefore justifying investments made, is a virtuous endogenous circle, which we need to recognise and tap into," he added.
He also urged the industry to partner with the government on deregulation to propel growth. ". India has to create eight million livelihoods at a minimum every year, excluding agriculture, and therefore we have to have policies that rely on capital-led growth and policies in private sector that are able to focus on labour-intensive manufacturing," Nageswaran said.
He added, "But this is a topic where, rather than relying on public policy actions, this dialog has to take place within the business community and also with the government on how are we going to ensure [this], because in the medium term, there is no trade-off between the interest of capital and the interest of labour, because without an adequately employed workforce, which will have implications for economic security and social stability, the private sector cannot thrive."...
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