India, April 9 -- Whether the ceasefire between US-Israel and Iran holds is something beyond the control of anyone other than the three countries directly involved, but there are learnings from the war for those willing to learn - which means any such analysis must perforce exclude Iran and Israel, both of whose positions have remained unchanged over decades. And the starting point for any such analysis must be the acceptance that the ceasefire will likely result, not in an enduring peace but an uneasy detente, courtesy the hard positions of Iran and Israel, and the mercurial nature of US President Donald Trump and, thereby, the sobering influence of the US as a superpower. For the US (and the world), the war is a lesson that a confrontation using conventional (but modern) weapons, with a reasonably strong opponent is unlikely to end quickly, if it is likely to end at all (as the Ukraine-Russia conflict has shown; it is now in its fifth year). Democracies, unlike authoritarian regimes, will always face higher costs of being involved in such conflicts. This despite the obvious asymmetry between the two sides - the US is the world's richest and largest economy, and has the world's most powerful military. It's the kind of epiphany that should prevent future wars, but geopolitics doesn't work that way. Still, President Trump's attention will soon move to matters domestic, primarily the mid-terms, and that is good for the world. There are significant learnings for India as well. While many commentators will focus on those in the realm of foreign policy (where there are lessons), the more pressing ones are those related to energy and supply-chain security. The after-effects of the war (should the ceasefire last) will result in at least a full percentage point, perhaps a bit more, being shaved off India's growth rate for 2026-27, something the country can ill-afford. One of the main reasons for this is India's dependence on imported energy and petrochemical inputs. This is a good time for the country's political leadership to review progress specifically in four areas: Coal gasification; green hydrogen; renewables; and strategic reserves (in oil and gas). India has ambitious programmes in all four, but barring renewables, it has made little progress. It's time to ask why - and hold those responsible to account. Unless this is done, the next crisis - and there will be one - will see a similar shock to the system....