JD(U), BJP almost set for 102-101 seat deal in Bihar
New Delhi, Sept. 30 -- The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on the verge of finalising its seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, with the Janata Dal (United) set to contest one seat more than the Bharatiya Janata Party, after Union education minister and BJP's state election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan met chief minister and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar in Patna on Sunday to give the final shape to the arrangement.
BJP leaders described it as a "courtesy meeting", but people familiar with the matter confirmed that the numbers are close to being finalised.
According to JD(U) leaders familiar with the matter, their party will contest 102 seats to the BJP's 101, honouring Kumar's insistence on "at least one more seat than BJP", while Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) will contest 22, Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), or HAM-S, eight, and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha, four. The remaining six seats in the 243-member assembly have been "kept on reserve", the JD(U) leaders added, pointing to smaller allies in the NDA that may need to be accommodated.
The Bihar elections are expected to be announced later this week or next week, and is set to happen in phases in the first and second weeks of November. The NDA faces the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) that also includes the Congress and the Left parties.
The seat-sharing formula of the Opposition bloc has not yet been finalised. According to insiders, the Congress has given a list of 76 candidates, Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) wants to contest at 42 seats and the Left parties have given a list of 36 candidates. RJD spokesperson Mritynjay Tiwari said party leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is the head of the coordination committee, will take a final call, in consultation with partners. "There will be no problem in seat-sharing," he said.
One of the JD(U) leaders cited above said the 102:101 formula signals the BJP's intent to keep Kumar happy to avoid any political churn. His reference is to the Bihar CM's previous exits from the NDA (in 2013 and 2022), although he rejoined it in 2017 and 2024.
JD(U) chief spokesperson Neeraj Kumar confirmed that the formula is directionally accurate, adding that "it is on expected lines as the NDA is firm about winning the coming assembly elections under the leadership of Nitishji.
Every ally will get the seats as per their support base and winnability and we'll repeat our success again."
Analysts point out that the formula is disproportionate to the JD(U)'s performance. "The BJP outperformed JD(U) in the 2020 assembly polls, winning 74 of the 110 seats it contested, compared to JD(U)'s 43 of 115," said political analyst Dhirendra Kumar.
But, the formula "underscores Nitish Kumar's continued clout in state politics despite the BJP's superior strike rate in 2020," he added. This arrangement will help the NDA tap Kumar's credibility among women and EBC (extremely backward class) voters, he said.
To be sure, the JD(U)'s performance last time was coloured by the then united LJP's decision to oppose it. In the 2020 elections, the LJP won just one seat, but managed a 5.8% vote share, and played spoiler for the JD(U) in at least 20 seats. Interestingily, LJP's deposit was not forfeited at any of the 130 seats it had contested.
Dhirendra Kumar described that Paswan's decision to scale down his demand to 22 seats from the previously expected 45 as "good news for NDA".
Without confirming the numbers, a senior LJP (RV) leader said Paswan is expected to meet Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi early this week to iron out the final details. "Our ambitions are not higher than the alliance dharma," he added, asking not to be named....
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