India will be largest contributor to global energy demand growth till 2035, says IEA
New Delhi, Nov. 14 -- India will be the largest contributor to global energy demand growth till 2035, with its growth in demand being as much as demand growth in China and all Southeast Asian countries, according to World Energy Outlook by International Energy Agency (IEA).
In this period, India will also be the largest contributor to growth in oil demand, second-largest for electricity generation and coal demand growth, and third-largest for natural gas demand growth, the agency said.
IEA has also projected that the share of non-fossil sources in installed generation capacity which is already 50% in India will rise to 70% in 2035 and that India will account for over 95% of global capacity increase of non-fossil sources by 2035.
Every year between now and 2035, India will add the equivalent of one Bengaluru to its urban population. And every day in this period, it will add nearly 12,000 cars to its roads.
In support of its long-term objective of net zero emissions by 2070, India announced in 2022 an objective to increase the share of non-fossil sources in the power generation mix to 50% by 2030. India met this target for grid-connected capacity in 2025, five years ahead of schedule. "This success was underpinned by surging investment in renewables. In 2015, every dollar invested in fossil power generation sources in India was broadly matched by a dollar invested in non-fossil sources, a 1:1 ratio. By 2025, this ratio had increased to 1:4 in favour of non-fossil sources. Solar PV alone has attracted $113 billion in cumulative investment in the past decade, compared with $112 billion for all fossil fuel power generation sources combined," the IEA said.
Non-fossil sources are likely to contribute to over half of electricity generation in India by 2035. This reduces the carbon intensity of electricity generation by nearly 45% to around 400 grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatthour, which narrows India's gap with global average level of carbon intensity of electricity generation. Other benefits include significant declines in emissions of key air pollutants such as fine particulates and sulphur dioxide, IEA said.
The rising share of variable renewables in power generation brings with it both challenges and opportunities. One challenge is the need for investment in storage and transmission to facilitate the deployment of renewables. Over 230 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage are likely to be added to the system by 2030.
The government is in the process of putting out tenders for new storage capacity.
Traditional energy risks affecting the security of oil and gas supply are now accompanied by other major concerns especially critical minerals due to high levels of market concentration. China mines 50% of the world's rare earth elements but refines and produces almost 90% of processed rare earth elements and industrial products, utilising extremely polluting and energy-intensive processes. HT reported on November 10 that access to critical minerals has emerged as a key factor in India's pursuit of its long-term net zero emissions goal....
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