India poised to maintain strong growth, says govt
New Delhi, Nov. 28 -- The Indian economy is poised to maintain strong growth through FY26, supported by a broad-based revival in consumption, easing inflation, and early gains from recent tax and policy reforms, the government said in its monthly economic report released on Thursday.
The finance ministry report noted that independent assessments peg real GDP growth in the July-September quarter at 7-7.5%, underscoring firm underlying momentum.
"With inflation contained, demand resilient and policy support intact, India appears to be entering the second half of the fiscal year on a firm footing-though global uncertainties still call for caution," it added.
Macroeconomic trends in October reinforce this outlook. Inflation fell to a record low of 0.25%, driven by GST rationalization, a favourable base, and sharp corrections in food prices. Retail inflation dropped from 1.44% in the previous month, largely because of the statistical base effect and deeper deflation in food items.
However, surging gold and silver prices pushed core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, up to 4.33% in October from 4.26% in September.
High-frequency indicators also point to strengthening demand in both urban and rural markets. Festive-season auto sales, a rebound in tractor purchases, rising UPI transaction values, and strong e-way bill generation all signalled improving consumption trends.
"The rationalization of GST rates has provided a measurable boost to consumption," the report said, adding that these trends point to broad-based improvements in demand conditions across both urban and rural segments.
Growth expectations for FY26 remain strong across institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 6.6%, citing a robust 7.8% expansion in the first quarter that helped cushion the economy from global headwinds. The World Bank has forecast 6.5%, supported by firm consumption, public investment, and structural reforms. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more upbeat, expecting growth closer to 6.8% on the strength of domestic fundamentals.
Rural consumption continues to benefit from higher agricultural incomes and healthy crop output, while urban demand is rebounding on the back of recent consumption-tax cuts, the report said.
On the supply side, timely progress in the rabi sowing season, aided by strong soil moisture and healthy reservoir levels, supports expectations of stable food supplies and muted price pressures.
"The external environment remains characterized by elevated trade policy uncertainty," the report noted, pointing to softer merchandise exports in October due to a spike in gold and silver imports. Record services exports, however, helped narrow the merchandize trade gap. "Capital flows were mixed," it said, with strong FDI inflows offsetting subdued portfolio activity, while foreign exchange reserves of $687 billion continued to provide a robust buffer against global shocks....
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