India, Sept. 11 -- French premier Francois Bayrou had no choice but to resign after he lost the confidence vote in the country's parliament by a wide margin, with 364 votes against him and 194 votes in favour. The immediate provocation for the confidence vote was the austerity measures in the proposed budget, not to mention scrapping of a few holidays, eventually proving to be his undoing. But the problems in France run much deeper than austerity measures or the likelihood of a shorter holiday list. France's fiscal deficit is 5.8% of its GDP - the third-highest in the Eurozone after Greece and Italy - and its public debt is 116% of its GDP. It is to deal with this twin problem that Premier Bayrou had sought expenditure cuts of 44 billion euros. This was opposed by the people at large and indeed street protests are planned. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose popularity is now at an all-time low, had three choices before him. One, to dissolve parliament and call for snap parliamentary elections, something he did in June 2024, which solved nothing and for which he has paid a huge political price already. With the political parties as divided as they are now, it is hard to see how another election will defuse the crisis, much less lead to a solution. Two, Macron, perhaps to stun the French and wake them up from stupor, demit office and provoke presidential elections. Somehow, this goes against Macron's personality, which left him with only one realistic option, that is to choose another premier. And that's what he has done. One Tuesday, he named defence minister and close ally, Sebastien Lecornu, to succeed Bayrou as the prime minister. But given the stalemate in parliament, Lecornu, much like his two predecessors, may not necessarily last long. The full-blown political crisis in France could not have come at a worse time. France, which has always lived beyond its means, now finds its fiscal deficit and public debt both ballooning out of control. The French, as is their wont, will take to the streets and protest against any austerity measures, which the deposed premier Bayrou had suggested as part of the annual budget. The protests, ominously called "block everything", have every chance of widening into something bigger with people protesting against Macron's proposal for a "European reassurance force" (along with Germany and the UK) in Ukraine, which would put French troops in harm's way. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already made his intentions clear with regard to any western troops stationed in Ukraine. The protests on September 10 may well be upwards of 100,000 in Paris alone. The French interior minister has promised severe action against those protesters who take the law into their hands. The possibility of street violence remains a concern. Geopolitically, the French political crisis may be seen against the backdrop of a Europe that finds itself vulnerable on many fronts. The trade deal that was so assiduously worked out by EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen with President Donald Trump runs the risk of unravelling. Von der Leyen herself is under pressure from the Left parties calling for a no confidence motion against her, on issues like the green deal and workers' rights. And at a time when Europe ought to be united in their support for Ukraine, it is anything but. With France out of action, Germany must shoulder the burden when it comes to Ukraine or even ties with the US. Ties with China are scarcely better, with both the EU and China imposing punitive tariffs (a la Trump) against each other on electric vehicles and pork exports. With the EU facing a host of existential challenges, France appears missing in action. The prognosis for France remains dim. Macron's legacy is in serious jeopardy and, if the crisis endures, he could well become a lame duck president for the rest of his tenure till the summer of 2027. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally benefits from all of this and is literally waiting in the wings. Its leader, Marine Le Pen may be prevented from running for presidential elections in 2027, but her protege Jordan Bardella's popularity is growing by the day. Many in France are asking if Italy can do reasonably well with a far-Right leader like Giorgia Meloni, why not France under National Rally? This, of course, overlooks some fundamental differences between the two countries. With the US in great churn, Europe in crisis mode, Japan in political upheaval and other G7 countries like Canada and UK facing socio-economic headwinds, it is fair to ask whether this is a moment of reckoning for the West. Either way, we are clearly seeing the incipient stages of the making of a new world order. The only trouble is that the new world order promises to be fragmented, polarised and contested....