India, Dec. 20 -- Uttar Pradesh was one of the strongest states for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent years. But the party took a serious hit in the state in the 2024 general elections. The results had two painful dimensions for the BJP. One, the loss of seats here deprived it of a clear majority in Parliament. Two, the gauntlet was thrown down by a regional force that the party had twice defeated in assembly polls - in 2017 and 2022. The 2027 assembly polls now give the BJP an opportunity to avenge its defeat. It has to crack another tough state - West Bengal - between now and then, but the blueprint for UP must have already been finalised. The BJP will likely draw from its recent experience in Bihar, where the party and its allies demolished the Opposition's carefully crafted Yadav-Mallah-Muslim-non-Paswan-Dalit bloc of caste and minority groups. The BJP did this by building a "Hindutva" coalition of Brahmin-Bhumihar-Kurmi-Manjhi-Paswan and extremely backward castes (EBCs). Politics in UP is also driven by caste matrices. The BJP deftly managed this in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, retaining the advantage in the 2017 and 2022 assembly polls, albeit with minor cracks. But the Akhilesh-Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP)'s pichra-Dalit-alpsankhyak, or PDA coalition - backward classes, Dalits and minorities - broke the consolidation that the BJP had worked on long before the 2014 general polls. The SP read the anger against its traditional Yadav-Muslim backing accurately and worked on several fronts, with ticket distribution reflecting its commitment to PDA. It successfully harvested the Dalit unease over allegations of the BJP wanting to change the Constitution, more particularly, to do away with reservation - while silently consolidating the Muslim vote. Mayawati's virtual absence from the fray helped - the Jatav core of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)'s base turned towards the Congress and the SP given they had been traditional supporters of the former. The BJP could never digest the 2024 defeat in UP. So, this time, it is out to challenge Akhilesh Yadav and the SP, likely in a multi-pronged manner. The larger Sangh Parivar will not leave any stone unturned to rebuild its Hindutva vote bank. This will mean wooing back the voters - the EBCs, the non-Yadav OBCs and the non-Jatav Dalits - who had drifted away in 2024. They can fully count on the support of Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs. Then, there is divide-and-rule, with a local twist. It will not allow non-allies to have each other's back. Recall how Mayawati became active before the Bihar polls; it can be expected that she will do everything to stem the exodus of her loyal voters, who account for 9-10% of the UP electorate. Before the Bihar polls, Mayawati had held a spate of meetings with various caste and minority groups. The BSP won one seat in Bihar and polled more votes than Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party and the Vikasheel Insaan Party. Hyderabad-based AIMIM has gained much traction after its splendid performance in Bihar. Its leader, Asaduddin Owaisi, is miffed with the SP leadership for varied reasons - including the then SP government stopping him from entering the state a dozen times between 2012-2017. Akhilesh Yadav may also face pressure from several Muslim leaders to include AIMIM in the Opposition bloc; this, however, will not be acceptable to him and his ally, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress. Till now, UP Muslims had accepted Mulayam and then Akhilesh as their first choice. Also, despite several forays,the AIMIM has failed to open its account in UP. It polled only 0.43% votes in the 2022 assembly polls though it had struck an alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Party. Both have a base in west UP. What if they come together again? A few hundred votes can make or mar the prospects of a candidate in a tight contest. The AIMIM and BSP coming together to forge Dalit-Muslim unity can also be lethal. But AIMIM will raise some uncomfortable questions and demands, from power sharing to seat distribution. But the party can damage the SP's influence if it fields strong candidates. The hype over the party's Bihar performance has certainly raised the pitch. Besides, the general perception, including among the Muslims, is that the BJP can arm-twist the BSP. There are smaller caste-based parties with influence limited to a constituency or two, but they owe allegiance to the ruling BJP. The BJP high command has often surprised the Opposition by drawing different strategies for poll- bound states. In Maharashtra, they broke the once-formidable parties. In Bihar, they dismantled the caste blocs eventually, but their first smart move was to pull Nitish Kumar away from a Kurmi-Yadav-Muslim alliance that was a sure-shot formula for victory. In UP, in a calculated move, the BJP appointed Pankaj Chaudhary, a senior Kurmi leader and seven-time MP from Maharajganj in east UP, as the new state president. The move is aimed at reconsolidating the OBC vote bank. Yadavs and Kurmis are two major politically conscious OBC groups in the state. Yadavs' loyalty to SP is well-established, but Kurmis, who account for over 7% of UP's population, were divided in 2024. Alongside, the BJP has further fortified its position in East UP. Much now depends on how well Akhilesh Yadav imbibed lessons on political charkha daon (a grappling manoeuvre that delivers a shock knockout to the opponent) from his wrestler father, Mulayam....