Engaging with the new Dhaka
India, Feb. 14 -- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has, as widely anticipated, pulled off a win in the first election held since a student-led uprising toppled the Sheikh Hasina government in August 2024, with the party set to comfortably get a two-thirds majority in a 300-strong Parliament. The alliance led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, which includes the National Citizen Party (NCP), is set to win over 70 seats. All eyes will now be on the transfer of power - interim government chief Muhammad Yunus has said it will be done at the earliest, but the final word can be said only after the process is completed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to congratulate BNP chief Tarique Rahman, who is set to be the next premier, signalling India's desire to move quickly on rebuilding relations after a stormy interregnum under the interim administration led by Yunus. The BNP leadership, too, has said it wants cordial ties with India and will not privilege or discriminate against any country.
First, the building blocks are thus in place for a reset, and it will be best for regional stability and progress that both sides move to put relations back on an even keel. Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina's presence in India will be a hurdle in resetting the relationship, but New Delhi and Dhaka will need to find a workaround and protect bilateral ties.
Second, the Jamaat-e-Islami failed to win, but it has secured a reasonable number of seats. While it has not moved away from its foundational Islamic precepts, it took a calibrated view of New Delhi during the election campaign, with Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman himself speaking about relations with India being a priority. The Indian side will also be relieved that the student-led NCP, which has been antagonistic towards India, has not been able to translate its role in the street mobilisations into electoral success. However, it remains to be seen whether the Jamaat will hold to its pre-election stance or push for more radical politics, now that the party is effectively set to function as the main opposition. What the Jamaat does - and how the BNP responds - will have implications for the 10% minority Hindu population of Bangladesh, and by consequence, on Dhaka's ties with New Delhi. The rise of radical politics in Bangladesh will also have implications for India's national security.
Third, the Awami League was not allowed to participate in the electoral process, but the party, with its storied legacy, remains a force in Bangladesh politics. How the new government engages with the Awami League will be closely watched. BNP's India lens is bound to be influenced by the Awami League's actions. In fact, the BNP's "Bangladesh First" agenda was basically a framework that subtly accused the Awami League of privileging Indian interests over Bangladesh's concerns.
It is imperative for New Delhi and Dhaka to guardrail substantive parts of the relationship - trade, water, travel, energy and investment - from day-to-day politics. A policy of zero tolerance for terrorism and radical agendas will serve Bangladesh well, both for relations with India and its own good. The BNP, hopefully, will set aside the vendetta politics that shaped past administrations and build on the gains in bilateral ties, especially over the past decade, when Bangladesh was among the largest recipients of Indian development aid. There is no reason why New Delhi would not reciprocate on an agenda of friendship with one of its largest and closest neighbours....
To read the full article or to get the complete feed from this publication, please
Contact Us.