Consumer confidence turns positive again
Mumbai, Dec. 16 -- India's consumers are beginning to feel-and spend-better again. After months of caution, sentiment has turned positive in the wake of the festival season, helped by policy easing, lower inflation, and improving urban incomes.
The key question now is whether this rebound marks the start of a sustained consumption upcycle, or a temporary lift driven by deferred demand and policy tailwinds.
That optimism is visible in the data. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) shows a steady post-festive recovery in confidence. The Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) rose 2.4% in October and a further 2.2% in November. The index grew at an average 2% between June and August.
While both rural and urban India saw an improvement, the rebound is clearly city-led: urban sentiment surged, while rural gains were marginal. Income perceptions have also strengthened, with the share of urban households feeling financially better off year-on-year rising by 1.2 percentage points. Rural sentiment, however, cooled sharply, with the rural ICS rising just 0.6% in November after a stronger 5.8% increase in October.
What is fuelling this recovery? Experts attribute the turnaround to a mix of policy action and improving purchasing power.
A fall in prices following the rationalization of the goods and services tax (GST) rates has helped to boost consumption which has been witnessed across the board, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. This surge in demand was anticipated, as many households had postponed purchases after the government announced impending reforms in August.
"This will hopefully be maintained through the rest of this fiscal," Sabnavis said. "The good harvest has added to income while the lower inflation induced by GST has enhanced purchasing power for sure."
In a sweeping set of reforms, the GST Council cut indirect GST rates on nearly 400 items from 22 September, shifting several household and mass-consumption items to lower tax slabs, primarily from 28% to 18% and from 18% to 12%. These included detergents, shampoos, packaged foods, kitchen appliances and air conditioners, translating into lower retail prices and stronger purchasing power.
Recent monetary easing has added further momentum. The 25-basis-point rate cut delivered by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), combined with benign inflation, is expected to support discretionary spending.
Souymajit Ghosh, chief operating officer at Balancehero, a digital lending firm, believes the cut should incrementally boost consumption through cheaper personal loans and improved credit access....
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