Choices before Iran's new Supreme Leader
India, March 10 -- One of the pronounced goals of the US-Israel attack on Iran was regime change in Tehran. In pursuit of that goal, the US and Israel killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei late February. Last week, a council of senior clerics chose the Ayatollah's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a 56-year-old conservative cleric who reportedly worked in his father's office coordinating defence and intelligence matters, as the new Supreme Leader. The appointment indicates that those in Iran's circles of power - the clerics, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and important politicians, such as the head of the National Security Council, Ali Larijani - have closed ranks behind a legatee of the late Ayatollah. The message is clear: The top brass in Tehran will build on the Islamist legacy of the 1979 revolution rather than walk the path of moderation. Ten days into the war, a regime change in Tehran appears even more distant.
As for Mojtaba Khamenei, what are the choices before him? The war was imposed on Iran by Israel and the US with no endgame in sight. Tehran responded with its own belligerence: It shut down the Strait of Hormuz, causing an energy crisis, and targeted the allies of America in its neighbourhood, raising the cost of the war and expanding the war zone. Tehran has apologised to its neighbours about the bombing, but it is unlikely that Mojtaba Khamenei will abandon this strategy, unless Iran runs out of missiles and munitions. An extended war of attrition could roil the global economy, and President Trump may face blowback at home.
Sure, Mojtaba could also use his office to reform Iran. Considering his lineage, his word will carry weight among the clergy and the IRGC. But will he? Just as the US and Israel should pause and ask what they seek to achieve further with this illegal war, Tehran could also reflect on its messianic project of building a State that has curtailed civil liberties and thrives in a mindset of eternal siege, fearing its own restive population....
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