America-first compass for new security strategy
India, Dec. 18 -- Not even the most blase among us can complain of boredom in international politics. Events are moving so swiftly that it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep up with the latest developments, even for those in the business. One of the most drastic changes that occurred recently was the shift in the US's geopolitical compass, as underlined in its new National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Donald Trump administration. It is an astonishing document, quite unlike what is expected of a global power. The short point is that it has immediate implications for India's security. That might need more changes in our policies across multiple areas.
By releasing new NSS drafts, US administrations over the years have sought to orient the government, at all levels, towards the direction of their choosing. Everything, from budgeting to fighting doctrines of the armed forces, is based on the document. As such, it is usually big on "vision" in terms of global interests and the strengths needed to advance them. Trump's first administration talked of "advancing American influence in the world". His second one simply wants a safe western hemisphere, and leaves the rest of the world to fend for itself, unless US security is involved - in which case, Washington expects each power to step up and contribute rather than wait for US troops to arrive. That is most likely not happening. That said, it still mentions the vitality of uninterrupted oil and the security of Israel, among other issues. But the US is not getting into "nation-building". That era is over.
Then, there is the list of threats. In 2017, the list of threats included Russia, China, and North Korea. This time, North Korea has been dropped, while Iran is mentioned only in terms of praise for Trump's air operations and Israeli actions. Russia is seen against Europe's fixation on it as an "existential threat", and the need to end the conflict in Ukraine. That divide was seen recently at the meeting of foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) on Ukraine. US secretary of State Marco Rubio chose not to attend. Meanwhile, the NSS calls out Germany for "building some of the world's largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas that they cannot obtain at home", even as Europeans as a whole are censured for "civilisational erasure", apparently due to, among other things, too much migration - which it flags as being at an end. These are dangerous paths to tread at a time when right-wing parties such as the Alternative for Germany have been increasing their vote-share, as part of a surge in such politics seen across Europe since 2024. This is bad news for Europe itself, and for those who seek to engage with it.
While the 2017 iteration called out China's increasing threat in all areas, this one recognises China's economic muscle and calls for a "rebalance" of America's economic relationship with China, "prioritizing reciprocity and fairness" even while noting that, to realise the objective of reaching a $40-trillion economy, it may need strong trade with Beijing. That's supply-chain dependence talking. Alongside this, it calls for a policy of strong deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific. It also makes a clear acknowledgement that any grabbing of Taiwan would affect not only semiconductor access but also allow China to dominate one of the busiest shipping routes. But here's the difference with the earlier approach. In line with a similar demand it makes of its allies in Europe, there is a "spend and do more" instruction here as well for allies such as Japan and Australia, which have significant stakes in the region. And that is where India also comes in for mention. Since India will also suffer from such Chinese transgressions, Washington wants "strong cooperation" with New Delhi. That seems to be alright with the Indian Navy. It has just cleared a Rs.7,995-crore deal for sustaining the MH-60 Seahawk order with Lockheed Martin. This was welcomed in no uncertain terms by the US State department on X.com. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that almost all of the Indian Navy's recent purchases are from the US, with General Electric powering the 'Next Generation Missile Vessels'. It is hardly surprising, given that Ukraine's capabilities in this area are getting weaker by the day.
In the final analysis, this is a rather honest and realistic document - in most ways. Honesty does take a hit as the NSS, yet again, repeats the US President's attempts to grab credit for ending the India-Pakistan post-Pahalgam conflict, but the way this document itself was written is quite instructive. The new NSS arises out of asking three simple questions. First, what "should" the US want; second, what the available means are; and third, how to connect ends to the means. These are indeed the basic parameters of any NSS, which no amount of fine language can get past. New Delhi might do well to follow this in its own NSS. The end result of this exercise is that the US is now clearly looking inwards, while recognising that it does not want or care to engage in costly adventures outside its hemisphere. But that doesn't mean America's primacy doesn't count. It will use all available levers to fulfil that objective, including "strategic use of tariffs". So, it's more of the same together with a "hands-off" policy on most crises that don't affect the US directly. For India, this means more adventurism by Pakistan - as also the obverse, which is the freedom to deal with this on India's terms. It is almost the same stance when it comes to Chinese salami slicing, except that Beijing must stay aware that Taiwan remains off bounds. Meanwhile, NSS makes clear that there will be no space for de-dollarisation. That will be met with strong economic reproof. Many will repine that the NSS no longer hails India as a "leading global power". But, India remains vital to US interests in the Indo-Pacific and for mining critical minerals in Africa - a nod to New Delhi's influence in the Global South. In sum, this is a no-holds-barred exercise that signals to allies, friends, and partners that American interests come first, and all tools will be used to ensure their primacy. It also makes it clear that those who haven't fallen in line must come to heel soon or else be barred from US favours, as secretary of war Peter Hegseth said recently. As the US ends its "nation-building" of the past, antagonism on India's rise can also be expected. It might be better to bide our time and hide our strengths. Now is no time for chest beating. That is best left to Trump. It is safer that way....
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