After US-Saudi pact, new West Asia in the making
India, Nov. 27 -- The recent visit of Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Washington marks a definitive turning point in both the regional and global order. Coming at a period of intense geopolitical flux, the visit did more than restore the de facto Saudi leader's diplomatic standing in the West, dented by the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi affair; it fundamentally redefined the US-Saudi alliance.
Hosted with full ceremonial honours by President Donald J Trump, including a South Lawn arrival, a State dinner, and Oval Office bilateral, this was MBS's first White House engagement since 2018. It signals a sharp return to transactional realism in US foreign policy, prioritising shared security imperatives and economic interdependence over ideological constraints. In an era of great-power competition and Middle Eastern volatility, the visit underscores Riyadh's enduring centrality to Washington's regional architecture. Geopolitically, the summit represents a robust reaffirmation of the US-Saudi axis as the lynchpin for containing Iranian revisionism and countering Beijing's inroads in the Gulf. Under the Biden administration, ties had deteriorated to a "managed estrangement," pushing Riyadh toward alternatives like the 2023 China-brokered detente with Tehran and deeper Brics engagement.
The Trump-led reset dispels any notion of US retrenchment. By designating Saudi Arabia a Major Non-Nato Ally (MNNA) and signing the Strategic Defence Agreement (SDA), Washington has elevated Riyadh's status without the encumbrances of a formal treaty. This framework embodies a pragmatic evolution of the 1945 Quincy Pact: It facilitates US defence industry operations in the Kingdom, while securing Saudi financial contributions to offset basing and training expenses, ensuring flexibility amid US congressional scepticism.
The Washington summit delivered multifaceted outcomes, blending hard security with transformative economic pacts. On defence, approvals for the sale of F-35 stealth fighters (with limitations to preserve Israel's Qualitative Military Edge) and nearly 300 Abrams tanks mark a quantum leap in Saudi capabilities. These transfers address vulnerabilities exposed by the Houthi drone attacks and emphasise interoperability with US systems, reducing Riyadh's reliance on European or Russian suppliers.
Economically, Saudi Arabia escalated its US investment pledge to nearly $1 trillion over a decade. At the US-Saudi Investment Forum, attended by tech titans like Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, agreements were struck to channel funds into AI, semiconductors, health care, and infrastructure. Crucially, Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) on civil nuclear cooperation - focusing on firms like Westinghouse - advance Saudi Arabia's plan for 16 reactors under strict non-proliferation safeguards. The AI agreement provides controlled access to US systems, while frameworks for critical minerals diversify supply chains away from China. These deals support Vision 2030 by localising high-tech industries, creating US jobs, and fostering interdependence beyond oil volatility.
The implications for peace in West Asia are profound. Enhanced Saudi deterrence reduces the asymmetry exploited by Iran and its proxies, potentially curtailing disruptions in the Red Sea. A militarily confident Riyadh is less likely to resort to unilateral adventurism. Furthermore, the SDA positions Saudi Arabia as the fulcrum for expanding the Abraham Accords. However, this comes with caveats. While the new security guarantees incentivise normalisation, MBS signalled that relations with Israel remain contingent on a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood. Consequently, the Trump administration's push for immediate normalisation was not fully achieved, leaving a rare chance for a sweeping detente in the Levant on hold.
For Tehran, this pact is an "act of encirclement", likely to fuel an arms build-up and strengthen calls for conventional and nuclear countermeasures. Yet, the visit's emphasis on stability over democratisation aligns with the post-Arab Spring reality, where authoritarian resilience has proven more durable than fragile transitions.
For India, the Washington summit presents a complex mix of strategic opportunity and acute security anxiety. The solidification of US-Saudi ties breathes new life into the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project vital to India's connectivity ambitions but paralysed by regional instability.
Explicitly prioritised by both leaders, the revival of this project positions New Delhi as the eastern anchor of a US-backed connectivity axis rivalling China's Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, Saudi capital may now flow more freely into Indian infrastructure and renewable energy, while new tech partnerships could open avenues for Indo-Saudi collaboration.
The immediate cause of concern for India's defence establishment is the potential porosity of the new US-Saudi security architecture. With Riyadh having signed a "Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement" with Pakistan just months prior, the influx of F-35s and advanced US radar systems into Saudi Arabia creates a nightmare scenario: The transfer of operational know-how or sensitive technology to Pakistani forces, who frequently train the Saudi military.
To mitigate this risk, New Delhi must now leverage its strategic partnership with Washington to insist on specific End-Use Monitoring (EUM) protocols. India will likely demand ironclad guarantees that Pakistani personnel are legally and technically barred from accessing sensitive F-35 avionics or encrypted data links during joint exercises in the Kingdom.
With the US also moving to mend ties with Pakistan, India faces a delicate balancing act: Navigating its longstanding US partnership while adjusting to these shifting strategic realities in West Asia. Concurrently, this heightens the urgency for India to modernise its air defence grid, fast-tracking the deployment of multi-layered air defence shields to counter the qualitative edge Pakistan might indirectly gain.
Ultimately, the summit forces New Delhi to play a sophisticated dual game: Deepening economic embraces with Riyadh to secure its western flank, while simultaneously working with Washington and Tel Aviv to erect guardrails against the unintended militarisation of Pakistan. The era of viewing the Gulf solely through the prism of energy and diaspora is over; for India, it is now a high-stakes theatre of national security....
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