After the strikes, escalation dominance lies with India
India, May 8 -- The Indian armed forces successfully executed Operation Sindoor in the early hours of May 7, carrying out targeted strikes on nine "terrorist infrastructure" sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in response to the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22. At a press briefing on the operations on May 7, government representatives said that the targets engaged were chosen based on strong intelligence inputs and their involvement in terror activities. It was also clarified that no military or civilian infrastructure of Pakistan was struck.
The Indian government's effort all along has been to isolate Pakistan in a multifaceted manner. The details of targets engaged and losses incurred therein have been brought out by the media and the official statements. It shall be pertinent at this juncture to carry out a review of the situation so far and what may be in the offing vis-a-vis escalation or otherwise.
First, it has come out loud and clear that the red lines have been drawn again by India, to send a strong message to Pakistan. The "justice delivery", to paraphrase foreign secretary Vikram Misri, was executed with deliberations involving various military and non-military measures, as against being an impulsive reaction to the Pahalgam attack. Operation Sindoor was several notches above the surgical strikes of 2016 and Balakot strike of 2019. The targets selected were more in number, had varied profiles, and were located as deep as 150 kilometres from the Pakistan border. Also, the strikes delivered by 24 missiles of various kinds had much wider footprints than before, including locations not only in PoK but also in Pakistan with one location across the international border (IB). This clearly has demonstrated India's intent and resolve in defending its rights.
Second, this was a joint operation with a high degree of synchronicity and was wrapped up in about 20 minutes. The employment of Rafale fighters, firing high-tech SCALP and HAMMER missiles, the employment of drones and loitering ammunitions, and the collection of accurate, real-time data for post-strike damage assessment through Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are a few facets that demonstrate our heightened capabilities.
Third, the Union government fared well as far as psychological warfare was concerned, by maintaining balance through a period of immense public pressure preceding the strikes. Pressure was mounted on Pakistan by forcing its army to mobilise across its length and breadth and by keeping them guessing. Given Pakistan's internal security situation and the state of its economy, the strain on them may facilitate quicker de-escalation.
Fourth, the diplomatic initiative of keeping the international community updated on the developments concerning Pahalgam has enabled India to build a strong case for itself; a fair number of countries with global heft are on board, except a few such as China and Turkey. Again, this is likely to be effective towards de-escalation.
As far as a Pakistani retaliation to Operation Sindoor is concerned, one can reasonably be expected. The sole driving force behind such retaliation will be securing the domestic narrative. The challenge lies in the fact that, unlike India which targeted terror infrastructure, Pakistan has no similar targets in India. This shall compel the Pakistan army to hit Indian military targets, primarily adjoining the Line of Control (LoC) and IB. As always, the civilian population in proximity to the LoC or IB will bear the brunt. There have been confirmed reports of casualties of civilians in Poonch during the first 12 hours after Operation Sindoor. Pakistan will find it challenging to justify the strikes.
Conventional capabilities of both militaries favour India; very likely, India will have dominance in escalation. The challenge lies in the fact that both nations are nuclear powers. The international community could weigh down on both to prevent any such step. On India's part, the government needs to send out the larger diplomatic message that retribution for Pahalgam has been achieved and that India does not want any further escalation. Our loud message connected to precision strikes on terror infrastructure certainly underlines this intent.
Domestically, in both nations, the leadership must construct or de-construct narratives that, over a period of time, have acquired jingoistic shades, as evident from social media trends. The supply in terms of what governments can deliver must dictate demand. This is warranted for peace and prosperity in the region. Otherwise, both the nations risk the chance of falling prey to the terrorists' machinations. Once the situation gets better, drive home the lessons of accountability for Pahalgam, because lessons learned from Operation Sindoor, in the mid- and long-run, may not turn Pakistan's terror tap off....
To read the full article or to get the complete feed from this publication, please
Contact Us.