India, Sept. 12 -- Indian aviation finds itself at the crossroads - again. Currently, the country of 1.4 billion is being serviced by a total of 850-odd aircraft (many are grounded due to various constraints at any point) but by 2040, based on the aircraft on order, another 1,200 should be added to the country's total fleet strength. The shortage of commanders and pilots to operate this fleet is already at around 15-20% as per industry estimates, and is expected to rise as airlines begin to induct their new aircraft. Consulting firm CAPA has estimated that India will need another 10,000 new captains in the next decade, till 2034. Airbus has further projected that the country - based on its present aircraft orders - will require 34,000 new pilots by the year 2040. Individual airlines are also fearing an acute shortage that could throw their plans awry as they go forward. IndiGo, the country's largest airline, which currently has around 5300 commanders and first officers (with around 400 under training at any point) expects to double this by 2030 based on current fleet induction plans. The Tata group has recently announced plans to set up a new academy to prepare crew for its own growing needs for all the carriers under their fold. Airline executives also say that unlike in the past when commanding an aircraft was considered a glamorous and a coveted career, today's young people have a plethora of options with equally lucrative salaries. "We have seen the enthusiasm wane when we make campus pitches", says a senior IndiGo manager. To overcome this yawning gap, airlines have thrown their weight behind a new pathway - a multi-crew pilots licence - which would alter the way pilots are trained in India currently. The existing system of training and readying pilots is such that pilots train on smaller aircraft and earn a commercial pilot's licence (CPL). CPL licence holders then have to undergo extensive training to work in a commercial airliner. India has long had a shortage of CPL training organisations and a large number of aspirants travel overseas to the US and other countries to earn the licence. After this they apply and hope to get picked up by one of the Indian commercial airlines to undergo extensive training to be fit to fly as first officer. While CPL training within India has gone up, the current process is likely to worsen the shortage as can be seen from the data. In 2020, 574 CPL licences were issued. This number rose by 49%, 35% and 47% for the next three years but 2024 has seen a drop in the number of CPL licences issued. The multi-crew licence was introduced by ICAO in 2006 and is now accepted in almost 50 countries including several European ones, UAE, UK and many in South East Asia including Malaysia and Thailand. While India has so far desisted from joining the many countries who have adopted this, in July the director general of civil aviation (DGCA) set up a committee to examine the move. The matter was previously examined in detail by a committee set up in 2017, which recommended permitting multi-crew licensing and suggested ways of improving the existing licensing system as well. With the pandemic, the entire matter was put on the back burner but in view of the growth in aviation post pandemic, the expected crew shortage has fuelled a relook. The multi-crew licensing system is an airline-led programme involving three entities : the airline, the flying training organisation (FTO) and the Aircraft Training Organisation (which provides simulator training) and is a competency based programme that allows the copilots to train in a multi-crew environment right from the beginning of their training. Instead of starting on a small, single engine aircraft, the new licence qualifies the holder to perform co-pilot duties on aeroplanes operated with more than one pilot. What this effectively means is that the trainee will do 40-80 hours of basic flying (some solo and cross country) and then will do almost 140-180 hours of intense simulator based training. "As things stand, a pilot undergoing training learns what he requires to know in about 70 hours of flying on a single engine plane and then he flies around with little clear purpose to tot up his hours to 200 but the learning is very little", explains a senior IndiGo executive. In contrast, the MPL allows "competency based training" which would train the pilot as per the specific airline's needs in the nine competencies required right from day one instead of "wasting time chalking up flying hours". A senior Air India executive says that MPL will improve safety practices as currently airlines typically put CPL holders who have trained on single engine aeroplanes after a bit of training into a very advanced fly-by-wire cockpit, which is not ideal. He argues that MPL has phases and takes the candidate through intensive emergency situations in a rigorous manner and that candidates are ready for the role of first officer after a few sectors of line-oriented flight training with extensive simulator usage. Moreover, the integration with a specific airline is built in from the start. The move has been resisted by FTOs, sections of pilots and some pilot associations who see this new system as nothing more than a "cost saving" proposal by airlines who are trying to squeeze out more profits from a business known for its thin margins although airlines argue that the cost saving if any at all would be negligible. In fact they argue that the airline would be more deeply vested and invest more time and effort in each candidate since MPL is an airline led programme. "Pilots need actual flying experience and such extensive use of simulators cannot replace the actual flying" says Jati Dhillon, a former senior commander and managing director of GATI, a flying school. He argues that the fact that countries like the US and Canada do not allow MPL means that it is a sub-optimal solution to a problem of scarcity. Dhillon fears that the move to MPL could spell the death knell for the 38-odd FTOs across India including the government owned IGRUA, an argument the airlines rubbish. They argue that the CPL system would still continue and that flying schools can produce more CPL holders with the same number of aircraft since candidates only need to do around 70 hours of flying instead of 200. "On the contrary, before a candidate goes in for a MPL licence, he in any case has to do 70 hours of flying in a smaller aircraft so the system would exist in parallel", says an airline executive. Several senior commanders including former IAF personnel echo the view that MPL graduates risk becoming "flight managers" for a specific aircraft type rather than fully developed aviators with a keener and nuanced understanding of piloting in real life situations. "If we want to place good managers in the cockpit instead of skilled aviators, then this might be the way to go", says a senior Air India commander who has been a flight instructor for years now. He argues that too much reliance on automation has its own pitfalls, as we have seen of late in several safety incidents and accidents. According to a former DGCA chief, this is nothing but the classic divide between the old and the new and the usual resistance to change. "MPL training relies more heavily on simulator and multi-crew training, with less solo flying in actual aircraft and will lead to reduced manual flying skills. Many of the old guard oppose an overdependence on automation and would rather stick to the tried and tested model", he explains. Resistance to change, he says, is at the crux of this but to argue that it is not tested is not true since the licensing system has been working across countries and airlines since 2013 with no clear negative repercussions. While MPL is being viewed as a "fait accompli" since the matter was studied by a committee in 2017 that endorsed it, the regulatory and oversight framework needs to be worked out carefully, say airline executives. Meanwhile, commanders and crew across airlines point to many other reforms that need to be looked into by DGCA including the system of expiry of pilot licences. In some ICAO member countries, the authorities issue non-expiring licences and the regulator only has to ensure that the licence holder meets the recency and competency criteria. "This would obviate a lot of harassment faced by crew currently as getting one's licence renewed by DGCA officials is a big pain point and a leverage for the officials involved", says a senior commander. This is also an area of petty corruption as many DGCA officers use this to arm twist, seek small monetary favours from or generally harass a pilot. Another demand and recommendation of the 2017 committee is that DGCA follow the system established by ICAO regarding type-ratings/class ratings for both aeroplanes and helicopters, which is based on single-pilot and two/multi-pilot operation instead of type-rating for individual aircraft, based on weight categories of aircraft. This will also obviate the need for individual type-rating for every aircraft, which causes additional workload. Crew and other airline executives allege that several of the proposed reforms remain on paper as the DGCA and its officials do not want to lose their relevance and control and would like to maintain the status quo. But, as the saying goes, in an ever changing world, change is the only constant....