India, Sept. 14 -- Just as the US ambassador-designate Sergio Gor admitted to "minor hiccups" in India-US ties and assured that the two countries are "not that far apart right now on a (trade) deal", one could ask how badly damaged the relationship is. What impact could improving relations between Washington and Beijing have on India's relationship with America? And if India doesn't stop buying Russian oil could we see a second or, even, third phase of additional tariffs? Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran believes "this is certainly a most challenging time for Indian diplomacy. There is no doubt that we are perhaps in a more vulnerable situation than we've been for quite some time". Meanwhile, there have been positive exchanges between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi on social media. Parallelly, Trump is reported to have asked the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on India if Delhi persists with oil purchases from Moscow. Let's come to developments that could seriously impact Delhi's relationship with Washington. First, Trump continues to talk about his very good relationship with China and his friendship with Xi. He's keen to do a deal with Beijing and he's even talked about visiting China. The question is how far will he go? Could he sacrifice Quad for a big deal with China? The New York Times says Trump has no plans to visit India for the Quad Summit. Does this mean the Indo-Pacific strategy is no longer central to the Trump Administration's foreign policy? That would have a markedly deleterious influence on India-US relations. It would push us to the margins from the central position we once had in America's policy vis-a-vis China. Saran puts it pithily: "India is most comfortable when its relations with the US and China are better than their relationship with each other." That's not the case today. The vibes between Washington and Beijing are certainly better than those between Washington and Delhi. This raises the question: Is there a possibility of some sort of G2 emerging between America and China? If yes, would that "legitimise" China's dominance of the Asian region? India definitely would not want that. In these circumstances, how much improvement can there be in India's relationship with China? Its rock-solid relations with Pakistan are unlikely to change. The border problem remains unresolved. China wants to dominate Asia which India cannot accept. And when it comes to trade it has considerable leverage in terms of rare earths, fertilizers and tunnel-boring equipment. So despite the smiles and handshake at Tianjin, there's little room for India-China relations to significantly improve. Let's now focus on Russia and oil. US vice-president JD Vance has said 25% secondary tariffs have been imposed on India as "aggressive economic leverage" on Russia to stop the Ukraine war. But that hasn't worked. So might a frustrated Trump impose additional tariffs on India? We can't be sure. That's the problem. Meanwhile, India has other questions to face. The truth is the savings by buying Russian oil, around $2 per barrel, is considerably less than the cost of losing $48 billion worth of exports to America. So, in economic terms, there's a good case for stopping Russian oil. But do the strategic and political reasons for continuing outweigh the economic? Presumably they do. As of now India will continue to buy Russian oil. But that means Russia benefits, because it gets the money, whilst India pays the cost, both in terms of exports to America and the wider relationship with Washington. Does that mean we're at the "bad" end of this arrangement? It does look like it, doesn't it? Let me end by drawing to the front an issue that's lurked in the background. Our relations with America are at their lowest ebb for three decades. We hardly have a relationship with Pakistan. Even though relations with China are improving we have serious problems that remain untackled. And whilst we have sunny relations with Russia, we're clearly paying a heavy price for them. Meanwhile - and this is the paradox - America's relations with China, Pakistan and Russia are better than under President Biden. These relationships have significantly improved in just nine months. So is this a bad time for Indian diplomacy? I can't help feel the answer is yes, despite Gor's optimism about India-US relations....