India, Feb. 2 -- The budget for the coming financial year was crafted in an environment defined by a profound shift in the global order, marked by the US's new doctrine of strategic uncertainty as a policy tool to "make America great again". For nearly 80 years, the world operated under a Pax Americana framework, which provided relative predictability in trade, security alliances, war, and global economic governance. That framework is now being challenged. Countries and corporations alike must recalibrate their strategies to navigate a world where predictability has given way to ambiguity, and rules-based multilateralism is increasingly replaced by transactional power dynamics. The outlook is increasingly zero-sum, and the pace of change has been remarkably rapid. This geopolitical transformation has unfolded alongside dramatic advances in Artificial Intelligence and digital technologies, intensifying sustainability challenges and accelerating demographic shifts. As Ray Dalio aptly observes, "Big shifts happen slowly, then all at once." We are now living through the all-at-once moment. Against this backdrop, rather than responding impulsively to short-term pressures, the government has chosen to focus on structural resilience. Several key themes underpin this budget. First, macroeconomic discipline remains central. Despite sustained calls to provide sector-specific sops in response to geopolitical stress and global slowdown, the finance minister has rightly resisted the temptation to abandon fiscal prudence. In an uncertain global environment, macroeconomic stability is India's strongest insurance policy. The revised estimate for the fiscal deficit has been brought in at 4.4%, below the earlier target of 4.5%, and the target for the next year has been further reduced to 4.3%. Government debt is targeted at 55% of GDP, with a clear roadmap to reach around 50% (plus or minus one percent) by 2030. This commitment sends a reassuring signal to markets and investors. Importantly, this discipline has been achieved without major changes to tax rules, barring a calibrated increase in the securities transaction tax to curb excessive speculation. Second, infrastructure continues to be the backbone of the growth strategy. Public capital expenditure is set to rise to Rs.12.2 lakh crore, equivalent to about 4.4% of GDP. This sustained push reflects a clear recognition that infrastructure investment crowds in private capital and boosts productivity across sectors. The proposed Infrastructure Risk Guarantee Fund will encourage long-term credit flows from banks. States have been allocated a special assistance fund of Rs.1.85 lakh crore to spur capital investment over and above Finance Commission recommendations. Logistics efficiency is another major focus, with plans for east-west dedicated freight corridors, the operationalisation of 20 national waterways over five years, and the development of seven high-speed rail corridors connecting major cities. The emphasis on urban development with a budget of Rs.5,000 crore over five years acknowledges the economic power of agglomerations and the role cities play as engines of growth. Third, the budget seeks to accelerate labour-intensive manufacturing and services. Building on the free trade agreement with the European Union, an integrated programme has been proposed for the textile sector to modernise and strengthen the entire value chain. Even more significant is the strong push toward services, with an ambitious goal of raising India's share of global services exports to 10% by 2047. To support this, the finance minister has proposed a Standing Committee on the Services Sector and another committee to examine the banking system's role in achieving a Viksit Bharat. Targeted interventions in health and tourism stand out. The establishment of five regional medical hubs will not only boost medical tourism but also domestic healthcare capacity, complemented by plans to train 1.5 lakh caregivers and one lakh allied health professionals over the next five years. Fourth, innovation and education form perhaps the most forward-looking pillar of the budget. India currently spends nearly $70 billion annually on sending students abroad for higher education. With tightening immigration regimes in countries like the US, this is an opportune moment to build world-class educational ecosystems at home. The proposal to create five university townships near industrial and logistics corridors is timely and strategic. If supplemented with an outreach to talented Indians abroad, particularly in the US, it could catalyse a reverse brain drain - an essential ingredient for true atmanirbharta (self-reliance). AI has been a focus, and cloud services (data centres) have been provided with a 22-year tax holiday. The clear intent is to make data a comparative advantage for India. In parallel, the budget identifies seven strategic sectors for scale-up, including biopharma, semiconductors, electronics components, rare earths, and capital goods. The "orange economy" (creativity-driven sectors ranging from animation and gaming to live entertainment, design and intellectual property) has been provided a fillip with the announcement of an Indian Institute of Creative Technologies. Fifth, ease of doing business remains a continuing reform priority. Since the Prime Minister announced a high-level committee on non-financial regulatory reforms on August 15, 2025, more than 350 reforms have been rolled out. These include GST simplification, labour code notifications, rationalisation of quality control orders, and important environmental and licensing reforms. This budget carries that momentum forward through customs and indirect tax reforms, simplification of direct taxes, decriminalisation of minor violations, safe harbour rules, and a reduction in regulatory burdens. Finally, there are some notable misses. The budget speech did not explicitly address disinvestment and privatisation - areas that merit renewed focus to unlock efficiency and fiscal space. Additionally, the recurring winter crisis of urban air pollution, with its severe health and productivity costs, deserves far greater attention and investment than provided in the budget. The ninth budget of Nirmala Sitharaman should be seen as a continuation of a coherent policy framework built steadily over successive years. Its emphasis on fiscal prudence, infrastructure-led growth, regulatory simplification, innovation, and human capital development reflects a clear strategic intent - to prepare India for a Viksit Bharat in an uncertain, volatile, and unpredictable world....