New Delhi, March 18 -- In recent days, two terms tend to make a regular appearance in the context of the Coronavirus outbreak - black swans and grey rhinos. The notion of a black swan event, made popular by Naseem Taleb in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, refers to the possibility of occurrence of a highly improbable event with severe impact. The notion of 'grey rhino', popularized by Michele Wucker, refers to a phenomenon where everyone fails to recognize signs that a high impact, highly probable event is about to occur. In view of the initial reluctance of Chinese authorities to recognize the seriousness of the outbreak, the current Coronavirus outbreak seems more like a 'grey rhino' event.

How is the current epidemic, di...