Stocks surge, crude oil cools as war cries fade
Mumbai, June 27 -- Indian benchmark indices rose to reclaim levels last seen nine months ago, as investors cheered lower oil prices, a weaker dollar, and strong domestic flows back home. Market experts believe the combination bodes well for the bulls in the near term at least.
As a ceasefire in West Asia after 11 days of conflict took hold, markets bet that the worst of the disruption was behind. The Nifty closed 1.21% or 304.25 points higher at 25,549, while the Sensex closed 1.21% or 1,000 points up at 83,775.87. Thursday's closing was the highest since October 1 when the Nifty traded at 25796.9 and the Sensex at 84266.29.
The gains were led by HDFC Bank , Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance, which together accounted for almost three-fifths of the Nifty's gains. Reliance Industries' market capitalisation crossed Rs.20 lakh crore for the first time in nine months to touch Rs.20.23 lakh crore. It stood at Rs.20.65 lakh crore on September 27 last year, when the Nifty touched a record 26,277.35.
Thursday's rally coincided with the expiry of the June series of derivatives-each series closes on the last Thursday of a month-which saw the Nifty gain almost 3% from 24833.6 at the May expiry to 25,549 at the June expiry.
What aided the rally was the fall in the dollar index-which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro, pound and yen-to a one-year low of 97.22. A weaker dollar boosts returns from risky emerging market equities.
Added to that was the cooling in Brent crude from $78.85 a barrel on 19 January at the height of the Israel-Iran conflict to $68.5 at the time of writing on Thursday.
"Lower oil, dollar, cut in interest rates back home and rising domestic equity inflows have aligned Indian stocks with global peers, which are on a global risk-on," said Nitin Jain, CEO and CIO, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Singapore. Interestingly, Jain said that not just mutual funds, other domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also pumping money into Indian stock markets.
In the first five months of 2025 through last Friday, net inflows of DIIs other than mutual funds, stood at $13 billion, more than the $11 billion invested in the whole of 2024. "This shows that not just MFs, but banks, insurance and pensions funds are upping the ante," he said.
Cheaper crude benefits India, which imports 85%, or 5.5 million barrels per day, of its oil requirement. Investors turned richer by Rs.3.5 lakh crore after Thursday's rally.
Options data for the week ending 3 July indicate a 3% range for the market from 25210 to 25890, with a bias to the higher end of the range.
This is supported by fear gauge India Vix falling to a three-month low of 12.59. The yearly average of the index is 15.52. A lower reading indicates confidence while a higher reading implies rising risk-off sentiment....
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