Six decades on, Punjab needs course correction
India, Nov. 1 -- Today, Punjab enters the 60th year of its formation. In the last 59 years, it has earned many a laurel and national applause. Sadly, some notoriety too.
On the positive side, the state secured food sovereignty for the nation - imagine the PL-480 days and what a Trump-like US President could do to us. The days of the beggar's grain bowl are history, thanks to the "sturdiest peasantry in India" as Sir Malcolm Darling, the British administrator, described the Punjabi farmer and paid tribute as "the finest specimen of men I have ever seen".
The state's contribution to the country's defence is even more distinguished. If sceptics need any reminder, Punjab is home to the highest number of war widows, despite its small size and only about 2% of the Indian population.
Post its formation in 1966, Punjab became the fastest growing state of the country, achieved the highest per capita income, was rated year after year by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy as the number one state in infrastructure development, had the best social indicators in India, and performed exceptionally well by almost any yardstick.
Punjab, however, started slipping in the late 1980s and is now a laggard state. For decades, its gross fixed capital formation is negligible, leaving little resources for capital investment. To complicate the scenario, its debt is ever rising, and is projected to cross Rs 4.17 lakh crore by the end of this financial year, with a debt to GDP ratio of over 46.8%, the second worst in the country.
It has earned the sobriquet of Udta Punjab due to widespread drug abuse. The problem persists despite determined state efforts to eliminate it. It also faces a demographic challenge. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.5%, below the replacement rate of 2.1%. The quagmire is compounded by emigration of the working-age group, leaving fewer productive hands back home and an increased burden of an aging population.
There is an abundance of explanations of why and how Punjab declined, but the root cause is the ethno-national turmoil of the 1980s. It shredded the state, destroyed peace that is the sine qua non to attract trade and industry, tarnished the state's image, crippled the administrative system, inflicted deep festering wounds and left a bruised psyche. The hurt reinforced the historical credence (of a deeply held belief) of injustice, discrimination and victimhood against Punjab, and that became, in public mind, the reason and the 'justification' for the state's fall from the position of pre-eminence, without introspection on the role we ourselves played in creating the mess.
In this quagmire of mayhem, the state missed out on the knowledge and information revolution that swept the world from the mid-1970s. Punjab's first Software Technology Park was established in Mohali only in 1991. By then places like Bengaluru had already emerged as India's Silicon Valley. The state failed to catch up because the conducive ethos, infrastructure and required human capital were missing.
Besides, Punjab's focus was and continues to be on land, agriculture, and small machine-based industry, while the matrix of economic growth long back moved to knowledge-driven economy. The state's power structure and leadership has been primarily agrarian, irrespective of which party ruled; its allegiance remained to a single sector (agriculture) driven growth.
The state's politics of acrimony only adds to the problem. Illustratively, in November 2001 HPCL, a public sector company, signed up for commissioning an oil refinery. The initiative was publicly opposed and killed by a strident successor political leadership. The project could be revived only in 2007 and commissioned in 2012. That was the last major industrial project in the state. Or take the case of three private sector power plants that helped the state achieve self-sufficiency in energy needs. These have remained objects of political slugfest for over a decade, without concluding, either way, the alleged charges.
Entrepreneurs shun such an environment. Frequent road and rail blockades by agitators or news of gangsters extorting money or killings, or recovery of illegal weapons making daily news, negate any steps that the state may take to attract investment by granting concessions, holding promotion shows, providing single-window clearance, ease of doing business, etc, as these are offered by every other state. Politics of acquisition diverts attention from real economic issues and even creates turmoil in society, like the never-ending cases of the unfortunate incidents of Beadbi (sacrilege). These are awaiting a closure since 2015.
The saving grace of the state, agriculture, is also in crisis. Crop yields have plateaued out and the law of diminishing returns has set in. There are ecological challenges of soil health, falling groundwater level, pesticide residues and high per capita debt liability of farm households, to name a few.
A national survey (NAFIS) assessed average monthly income of farm households in the state at Rs 31,433 in 2021-22. Given the average size of landholding of about 3.62 hectares, even if the MSP is fixed by the Swaminathan formula of C2+50%, it would give only subsistence level income to farmers.
The solution lies in reforming the agriculture sector, augmenting income by allied activities and skilling rural population in non-agricultural high value economic activities. The state needs not just diversification of agriculture but diversification of its economy; it has to grow beyond agriculture and transcend the 'agricultural syndrome'.
Agricultural commodities are a primary produce hence low in value and will not provide the required quantum increase in the income of farmers or propel the state's rate of growth. The solution is known and needs no reinvention. There are a plethora of documents and recommendations proposing a course of action. There are government-mandated reports, such as Niti Aayog's dialogue with the state, the Punjab Vision Document-2030 by IDC, Punjab Vision-2047, and even recommendations by the private sector like CII's Punjab Vision formulated by Birla Institute of Technology. Sector-specific action plans, such as the Punjab Agricultural Policy, have been on the government table for a while now. The state has a development commission constituted in September 2023.
Will the required course correction happen? In driblets, yes. As they say, the economy is essentially political. Democracy is a struggle for power by politics and in the age of irrelevance of ideology, the parties follow what Deng Xiaoping advised: The colour of the cat does not matter so long it catches the mice. The voter is the target and the cat they have invented is the freebies; it is political opium. The trend was set by Tamil Nadu and is now practised in all states and by all parties. Punjab is due for elections in a year, so expect only those initiatives that are "electoral-proof".
The onus, thus, shifts on people to collectively demand a course correction. As Sir Malcolm wrote over a century ago: "Punjab does splendidly, whether with sword or plough, as long as conditions are adverse." Adversity brings the best out of us, the latest example being the massive voluntary flood relief effort. So, rise my Punjab - we are not a langar state dependent on doles, but capable of self-correction and demanding that from the polity, too....
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