Fiscal deficit widens on higher capex, lower tax
New Delhi, Nov. 29 -- India's fiscal deficit for the April-October period rose on higher capital expenditure and lower net tax revenue.
The fiscal deficit stood at Rs.8.25 lakh crore, or 52.6% of the 2025-26 budget target, showed data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday. That compares with Rs.7.51 lakh crore or 46.5% of the estimate in the year-ago period.
The central government's fiscal deficit target is 4.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025-26 announced in the Union budget. The government ended fiscal 2024-25 with a fiscal deficit of 4.8%, which was lower than the revised estimate of 4.9%.
In absolute terms, the budgeted fiscal deficit stands at Rs.15.69 lakh crore for 2025-26.
In the first seven months of FY26, net tax revenue stood at Rs.12.74 lakh crore, or 44.9% of the budget target, compared to Rs.13.05 lakh crore or 50.5% of the target in the year-ago period.
Tax revenues have been impacted by the income-tax rebate announced in the budget, effectively reducing the tax liability to zero for citizens earning up to Rs.12 lakh per year.
Non-tax revenue stood at Rs.4.89 lakh crore or 83.9% of the annual budget estimates, as against Rs.3.99 lakh crore in the year-ago period, or 73.2% of the year's target. Total revenue receipts were Rs.17.63 lakh crore, or 51.6% of the estimates for FY26, versus Rs.17.23 lakh crore or 53.7% of the target a year earlier.
Total government expenditure stood at Rs.26.26 lakh crore, or 51.8% of the annual target, compared to Rs.24.74 lakh crore, or 51.3% of the budgeted estimate, in the year-ago period.
Capex stood at Rs.6.18 lakh crore during the period, or 55.1% of the annual estimate for FY26, compared to Rs.4.67 lakh crore or 42% of the annual estimate during the year-ago period.
"...The positive factor is that the amount spent on roads and railways is higher in proportionate terms this fiscal, showing progress being made," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.
"On the revenue expenditure side, fertilizer subsidy is higher and needs to be controlled. Revenue from goods and services tax (GST) could be lower, which really means that there may have to be close monitoring on the expenditure side. While non-tax revenue through RBI transfer has provided a lot of support, it needs to be seen if other tax components are able to grow and meet the targets," he said.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra Ltd, said, "Higher-than-budgeted non-tax revenues would absorb a part of the shortfall on the taxes front. On the expenditure side, while there could be some additional allocation towards the fertilizer subsidy and any supplementary demand for grants, if announced, this would be offset by the expenditure savings of various ministries, in line with the typical trend seen during a fiscal year," she said. "Consequently, we do not expect a material fiscal slippage at the current juncture."...
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