Bypolls to 4 Rajya Sabha seats in J&K, 1 in Punjab on Oct 24
New Delhi, Sept. 25 -- Four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu & Kashmir, vacant since February 2021, will finally go to polls on October 24, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced Wednesday, adding that three separate elections (for one, one, and two seats) will be held as each vacancy technically falls under a different election cycle.
ECI also announced an election to fill a Rajya Sabha seat from Punjab that fell vacant on July 1 as AAP's Sanjeev Arora resigned after being elected as MLA from Ludhiana West assembly bypoll on June 23. Arora was inducted as minister in CM Bhagwant Mann's cabinet on July 3.
The delay in holding the Jammu & Kashmir elections can be traced to multiple legal, administrative, and political factors that unfolded after the state's reorganisation in 2019. First, once the four members retired in February 2021, there was no functioning legislative assembly to act as the electoral college. Under the reorganisation, Jammu & Kashmir was reduced from a full state to a Union Territory with a legislature, while Ladakh became a Union Territory without one. Until assembly elections were held and members elected, the constitutional mechanism for electing Rajya Sabha representatives did not exist.
Another complicating factor was the unusual situation in which all four Rajya Sabha seats became vacant at nearly the same time. Normally, Rajya Sabha retirements are staggered to ensure continuity, with one-third of members retiring every two years. The simultaneous expiration of all four terms disrupted this rotation.
ECI requested a Presidential order through the Union law ministry to stagger the terms of the new members to restore the cycle.
The ministry, however, declined, arguing that no legal provision permitted such an intervention. Without staggered terms or clear guidance on resetting the rotation, the elections remained on hold.
Electoral rolls needed to be updated after delimitation exercises altered constituency boundaries, and by-elections for vacant assembly seats - such as in Budgam and Nagrota - had to be completed to ensure a full and legitimate electoral college. Officials familiar with the process noted that the Commission preferred to wait until these bypolls were concluded before calling Rajya Sabha elections.
At the present strength of various parties in the J&K assembly, the National Conference-Congress bloc with about 48 elected MLAs against the BJP's 29 (in a 90-member house), could win all four seats.
In Rajya Sabha elections, elected MLAs vote under a system called proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV). The legislators do not vote for each seat individually. Instead, they list different candidates in order of preference. To be elected, a candidate needs to receive a certain number of first preference votes, which is the qualifying threshold. The remaining votes are then transferred to other candidates based on their lower preference rankings. This means that MLAs can also support candidates from parties other than their own. However, second or subsequent preferences are optional.
The lieutenant governor can nominate up to five MLAs. If these nominations are made before the Rajya Sabha polls and the nominees vote with the BJP, the electorate would rise to 95, raising single-seat quotas to 48 but dropping the two-seat quota to 32 - enough for the BJP to cross the line with its own members plus nominees and win one seat.
In Punjab, AAP, with 92 members in a 117 member House will win the election amid speculation (denied by the party) that its chief and former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal could contest.
Together, these steps will bring the Rajya Sabha closer to its full complement of 250 and resolve one of the longest-running vacancies in the Upper House....
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